Category: Politics

Thoughts?  Well, we will still be counting ballots until 4/12 or so due to our ridiculous primary and general election rules that allow mail in ballots to be accepted and counted up to a week after election day!

However, most races have been essentially “called” and I want to provide some commentary on the results and where things could head in The General out here.

The Senate Race:  Beware to all who think a “top two” primary is a smart idea.  In this republic the top two vote getters regardless of party affiliation advance to the general.  This is blatantly unconstitutional in my understanding of the laws here, but the Democrats love it, and the GOP figures it must be good since they refuse to challenge the legality of it.  You in essence had 5 “major” candidates.  Republican former LA Dodger baseball player Steve Garvey, and republican perennial candidate Eric Early.  I swear to all forms of God, I have seen Early on my ballot no less than 4 election cycles now for some office.  The Democrats had 3 major candidates, all congressmen.  Adam Schiff from LA, Katie Porter from Orange, and Barbara Lee from Oakland.  I listed the 3 in order of sanity from most sane to least.  Or, if you are a Republican operative, who I would vote for in a “top two” of just Democrats.  I understand Schiff led the impeachment of Trump but compare his voting record to Porter and Lee and he looks like a watered-down Democrat, but I digress. 

Garvey and Schiff advanced to the runoff comfortably, and both played the election correctly.  Garvey has some name ID from his time as a baseball player down south, this is huge in a state like California.  Schiff had a national profile and decided he would “take Garvey with him” to the general. 

Porter had a similar strategy it involved Eric Early.  Barbara Lee is likely still ranting about her $50 an hour wage minimum wage to an auditorium of no one except friends and family; so I will not include her in my analysis.  Schiff comes from Hollywood-Burbank LA, it’s a wealthy, mostly white part of the most populous county in California, so he had a massive built in advantage in name ID.  Porter from a similar demographic in neighboring Orange, but a much smaller voter universe.  My point is, let’s say Porter and Schiff made the runoff.  Porter is far more popular with the far left than Schiff, and as a result it’s a risk Schiff couldn’t take.  Schiff knows that a top two in November with a hated Donald Trump on the ticket will drive up the far left’s numbers and likely give the race to Porter, so he helped Garvey. 

Here is 1 of 2 glossies Schiff sent me, in essence propping up Garvey.

Since Schiff helped secure a top two finish from Garvey, he is a “shoo-in” to win the general.  Garvey also played this right, he raised 2 million (a sum that is very small, not even congressional campaign worthy) and spent about 0 since Schiff was propping his up.  Why spend money when your likely opponent will do it for you?

Katie Porter went completely unhinged after losing, so much so Troll has a blog in the chamber.

Big picture this is a good thing for Republicans in November.  We are defending a lot of marginal GOP seats, Trump will be a drag on the ticket, the absence of a Republican for Senate will destroy the ticket.  Garvey will get around 38% or so in my estimation, maybe closer to 41.  My point?  The extra turnout he draws will likely be from the LA area where we are defending the vulnerable House seats.  The extra several thousand votes could very well mean we keep a congressional majority.

Another thing worth watching, we had but 1 statewide proposition on the ballot it dealt with a bond for several billion for mental health treatment.  Out here we allow the mentally insane to roam the streets, even dodge traffic and can do nothing sense they aren’t technically breaking a law.  The proposition which Gavin Newsom campaigned for, and I believe raised over 13 million is barely passing.  50.3% to 49.7%.  Yup you read that right, still a pant load of ballots to count and anything can happen, but this may be finally a sign of Californians wising up.  We have spent trillions out here on various grifts like homelessness and affordable housing, none has worked.  We know have Democrat mayors and legislators trying to change prop 47 aka the “shoplift ‘til you drop law” to jail serial shoplifters.  These things happen when you start losing the narrative.  A Garvey win in November?  No chance, but he could set the wheels in motion of a turn around.  That proposition damn near losing when all signs point to Republicans voting late like usual could mean it fails.  A big blow to Newsom and the political elite out here.

(Please don’t take my above comments on Newsom as implying that I think the seventh recall attempt against Gavin has a snowball’s chance in hell of happening.)

A word on Trump if I may.

He is now the inevitable nominee.  It has been written how the bloggers here have soured on him.  He will be getting our votes in November, but with a jaundiced eye.  He is putting a family relative in a high-ranking post at the RNC who has been open about using the cash to pay Trump’s legal bills.  The RNC has not raised much cash at all compared to prior cycles; we are late in the cycle right now.  The cash will be needed in swing states for get out the vote operations.  We also have a slim majority in congress, and a chance to pick up seats in the senate, but with Trump who the heck knows.  I foresee a Trump presidency but a Democrat-controlled congress.  Trump will get nothing, and likely be impeached another 2-5 times just because. 

Trump is also scaring me on the campaign trail.  His remarks about the judge in New York, the DA in Atlanta, and the various Democrats he doesn’t like come off as dictator-like.  Frankly he comes off as a jilted former lover and having an axe to grind, but in this case the axe could very well be the DOJ and IRS, two very scary agencies to be up against.  His threats to leave NATO are somewhat scary.  Joe Biden may come off as a senile old man, but man Trump comes off as an unhinged whacko at times.  The debates could be legendary (if they are allowed) Joe could well wonder off, or fall asleep, while Trump could spontaneously combust.

The Chief

Garvey Wins by Sheltering In Place

Wow! How ‘bout Steve Garvey? This guy is going to ride his Major League Baseball record into the General Election as a U.S. Senate candidate. Four years ago, Joe Biden hid in his basement while running for President and Garvey seems to have adopted a similar strategy by hiding in the dugout until the game was over. I guess he just hid while the three Democrats destroyed each other in the Primary. What a political rope-a-dope. Unlike the guy that “floats like a butterfly and stings like a bee”, I doubt Garvey will assert that he is the greatest. More likely he will promise to “do no harm.” In California politics that might be change enough.

Swamp Queen is Democrat’s choice for GOP

In a shocker, the Swamp Queen managed to win Vermont, home of Joe Liberman. (Anybody still remember him?) Oh, get this headline “Not even Democrats could save Nikki Haley from Trump.”

A small army of “protest” voters was on an uphill mission on Tuesday (Wednesday AEDT) to stop Donald Trump from trouncing Nikki Haley in the Republican primaries.

But the voters were Democrats, rather than Republicans, who were crossing party lines in a desperate and ultimately doomed attempt to halt the former president’s domination of the Super Tuesday primary contests held across the country.

Here’s yet another story.

But in Vermont, according to unofficial results released by the Secretary of State’s Office, Haley bested Trump 49.3% to 45.1%. (Her only other victory came Sunday in the District of Columbia.)

The secret to Haley’s success in the Green Mountains appears to have been people like Marley Beers — a Winooski independent who typically votes for Democrats and expects to back President Joe Biden in November. On Tuesday, she requested a Republican ballot and voted for Haley.

“I don’t really want Trump to have a very easy path in getting the Republican nomination,” Beers explained.

The role of crossover voters — in this case, independents and Democrats who chose to take part in the Republican primary — was “huge, huge, huge, huge,” according to Rep. Ashley Bartley, R-Fairfax, a co-chair and leading organizer of Haley’s Vermont campaign.

Republican Gov. Phil Scott, Haley’s most prominent supporter in the state, agrees.

“Without the independents in particular coming in and grabbing a Republican ballot, it wouldn’t have happened,” he said in an interview Wednesday. “I don’t know how many Democrats, but I’m sure there were some — more of an anti-Trump vote.”

How Nikki Haley won Vermont

Folks this is so sad. The Swamp Queen is a legend in her own mind. (She is the Swamp Queen for winning the primary in Washington D.C. on Sunday.)I guess when you’re desperate and it’s closing time, you will go with whoever says a few nice things about you even when you know it’s just a one-night stand. Don’t know about the rest of you but I lost respect for her long before closing time. Being drunk with the illusion of power is not becoming of anyone; especially someone claiming to be a lady and wanting to be treated as one.

The Orange Man is the nominee now. If the Democrats had left Trump alone once he left office, then the Florida Governor would be the Republican candidate to beat. Guess he will be “on deck” for the next four years. Trump keeps teasing his VP choice, but I hope he keeps that under wraps until summer.

My only concern is whether Trump will be as conservative as he was in his first term… at least up until Covid. Hope so. He’s the only choice I can vote for in November.

Lastly, I wonder who the Democrats will really have on the ballot in November. You can bet your sweet bippy that the focus groups are actively searching to see if they can find a competitive alternative to Sleepy Joe. Meanwhile, the word has gone out to “start the steal” for 2024.

Before

Today I will be participating in my first political caucus. At 11 AM today, registered Republicans across the state will gather at designated places to cast their ballot for President. Unlike California, voters must be registered by December 31st of 2023 and provide a government issued photo I.D. to be allowed into the building. Once admitted, we can cast a ballot. There is no same day registration or crossover nonsense like other states. Non-Republicans or folks residing in other counties are not permitted to enter.

Electioneering is allowed by voters but not caucus officials. Also, candidates can have booths in the building, but candidates are not allowed into the venue unless they happen to be in their home county. Booths can be manned only by people living within the county that are also registered Republicans. They must pay for any booth and the money is used to offset the cost of the caucus; namely, advertising.

Per the local County Party, there will be six names on the ballot since that is the number that qualified for the ballot. (As in other states, suspending your campaign, resigning, or other means of exiting the primary battlefield do not remove anyone’s name from the ballot once the filing deadline has passed.) Given the current field, I think Trump will win handily but will it be with a 41 percent margin as it was in Michigan? We will see.

The doors close at 12:30 PM (half past noon for those readers from Rio Linda). Whether we can vote and go or must wait until 12:30 to mark a ballot is a bit murky. Once you turn in a ballot, your hand will be marked to prevent a second vote from occurring. (The jury is out on whether we will be marking the righthand or forehead of diehard Trump supporters.)

Ballot watching is encouraged, and ballots will be counted on the spot once voting is complete. Each county will send their results to the Party HQ in Boise and the state’s votes will be tallied. If anyone gets over 50 percent, then my understanding is that they will be awarded all the state’s delegates.

I’m not sure if this process will be a smooth one or a cluster you-know-what. I do know that the promised caucus notifications were never mailed to all registered Republicans. Many we unsure what to do or where and as a result this may reduce participation. I don’t know if this is just a local system failure or a statewide phenomenon.

Oh, the weather today is snowy. We have had about 4 inches since sunrise and it’s still coming down.

I plan to provide an update after I return from voting.

After

Here’s a summary of what I learned/observed.

The school gym was chosen because it has the largest crowd capacity of any building in the county. It could accommodate more than ten percent of the registered Republicans in the county which apparently was a criteria for building selection.

Since we didn’t get the Party mailer about the caucus, my wife and I had to try harder to figure out which table to go to in order to check in (each table was a different precinct.) We signed the ledger and received a red stamp on our hand. This allowed us to get past the guard at the door and enter the gymnasium.

Inside the gym there were tables for various candidates and in many cases the candidate himself was at their respective booth. On the far side of the building were the voting booths. I found out when trying to vote—which happened later—that the voting booths were literally made of cardboard. It was a flimsy platform for a political spectacle but somehow appropriate. Oh, said booths were borrowed from the county elections office.

Shortly after noon, the program which culminated in voting, began. The event started with an invocation. Next was the Pledge of Allegiance. Following the Pledge, there was a pause as one guy left the podium, and another took his place. During this pause, a portion of the crowd began singing the National Anthem. After about 15 seconds, the rest of those in attendance began to sing as well. It was clear that this was not part of the official program but was graciously received by the event’s hosts.

Next were some obligatory instructions as to the process. These were followed by the ceremonial showing of a ballot box that was open for all to see—think something like a product exhibition on a tv gameshow like Let’s Make a Deal or the Price is Right—the purpose was to prove it was empty. Once this was completed, the box was shut and locked. Two people were selected to guard and count the ballots. Attendees were given an opportunity to object, but no one did. Oh, per state party instructions, the ballot box was filmed for the entire voting period to have a record that no tampering occurred. This pageantry was a not-so-subtle slam on the Democrat practice of stuffing ballot boxes. Vote ID and chain of custody for the ballots were clearly an emphasis of the event.

Two women passed out ballots and stamped the hands of each person that was given a ballot. This second stamp was black. Again, a clear effort is being made to keep folks honest.

People were told that they could remain and observe the ballot counting. Official caucus observers representing candidates were introduced. At my caucus, only Donald Trump has an official observer.

With the preliminaries out of the way, it was time to vote. Well sort of. You see, each candidate was allowed a five-minute video to plug their campaign. These were supposed to be shown first but the videos actually started as ballots were being handed out. People in line to vote had their backs to the videos which were projected on the gym wall opposite where the voting was taking place. People in line literally had to look over their shoulders to see the video. Trump’s video was first. Its conclusion was greeted with applause. Then Nikki Haley’s video started. It was greeting with a chorus of boos and catcalls.

I took a quick photo of my blank ballot, filled it out and then dropped it in the box.

Outcome

Here are the results of the caucus in my county.

Donald Trump 90.8 percent
Nikki Haley 7.7 percent

Raw data
Trump 462 votes
Haley 39 votes
Ramaswamy 3 votes
DeSantis 3 votes
Binkley 1 votes
Undervotes 0 votes

Total votes Cast 509

Turnout was about ten percent

All other offices will be voted upon in the May primary.

Note: per Politico, with 67.4 percent reporting statewide, Idaho has gone for Trump 84.6 percent to Haley at 13.5 percent.

William wrote a very good blog exposing Nikki, I agree with all his points. I wanted to take it a step further and show you who she really is. Haley was a congressperson from South Carolina, she ran for governor as a “Tea Party” nominee in 2011. She won. She then was appointed by Trump to be United Nations Ambassador, as payback for her embracing “MAGA.” She stepped down after about a year of service. She is now running for President with a strange anti-Trump, quasi establishment, globalist, war Mommy campaign.

She also continues to insist she has never lost an election, which is odd as that tells folks you have no backbone or spine; you simply change colors to match the room you walked into. This seems to be a theme with her.

There is a statement popular in certain circles called “read the room.” Haley appears to be quite good at that. Just look how she has morphed over the years…. Tea Party was basically cut taxes, eliminate government workers, and government spending (among other things), MAGA was to become a nationalist, law abiding and hardworking society (among other things) and now she has embraced the “Bush/McCain/Romney” doctrine of “if it polls good, do it”. In other words, she makes a fine politician.

Nikki Haley’s biggest problem is she reminds me of someone I know with a personality disorder. She is a socially awkward introvert. You can tell when she talks about her campaign (from the little I see on TV…I don’t have cable) she is delusional. She actually thinks she can win despite getting molly whopped in the primary so far…oh as William pointed out another, she is destined to get blown out in her home state of South Carolina. Oh, her appointed senator and one time candidate Tim Scott won’t endorse her, as he knows she is toast. Her entire campaign seems to revolve around making people happy and liking her. This is a main problem with introverts. They have few friends so being accepted is more important than having any actual beliefs.

Some big money donors are behind her, and it’s fueling her insanity. Folks, in politics, money is required to continue the campaign and unless you are personally wealthy like Trump, you have to rely on fundraising to make it work. Haley appears to have “old guard” donors like Koch industries behind her and as a result their $$$ is changing her beliefs. She has nothing good to say about Trump, yet she worked for him as UN Ambassador? Rough look toots. She now is in full establishment mode and is finding out the numbers will not add up. She is pressing on only because the $$$ is telling her to. Watching her circle the drain is rough.

What should she have done? Easy answer is not run for president. But I will offer my thoughts, rather than re-making yourself (Haley is finding out politics isn’t like make-up voting/track records are hard to cover up) I would have identified the correct lane to run in. What I mean by that is this: Trump is MAGA, and he announced prior to the midterms going down. MAGA is Trump, good luck trying to take that over. DeSantis, was, is, and always will be MAGA light. He had zero chance with Trump in the running, as such he is out. Vivek ran as “MAGA but outsider” and again is out of the race. MAGA had 3 folks running, none of which did much. Chris Christie, mostly due to his size, takes up the entire “Trump is a criminal” lane. So as such she could have picked a better position than “I’m a non-white woman, who has never lost an election.” Not only is that extremely pandering, but it also comes off as it being “her turn” which sounds very much like the Democrat Party to me. She could have staked out a conservative position, based on her voting record. She didn’t, she went full globalist. She could have backed up her positions by drawing on things she knows from her time in Congress (presidential powers, war powers, budget, etc.) Instead…. yikes.

This isn’t going to end well; I predict Trump by about 40% in South Carolina. I believe Florida is next…. they may need to have a disclaimer on the TV to hide the woman and children when those results trickle in. Super Tuesday is after that…you get my drift. She will be politically irrelevant in about 1 months’ time. Nikki will be the female equivalent of Jeb Bush where everyone will wonder how she failed so badly with all her experience?

Like William pointed out, Nikki got caught with her pants down…. maybe that should be her next campaign move try to get support amongst the young male vote? She is already going out of her way to court Democrats, so why the heck not?

The Chief

PS. Just remember eight short years ago Trump, Kasich, and Cruz were splitting the vote fairly equally during primary states (Trump would get about 5-8% more than each) so my point about their being a lane to run in makes sense. She just never found it, and as such this race is over.

Editor’s Note: I also think Haley believes that if Trump gets in legal trouble (i.e. convicted of a bogus felony), since she is in the race, she will be the heir apparent for the Republican nomination. Dream on baby!

Much to the chagrin of Democrats and Never Trumper’s, Special Counsel Robert Hur who was investigating Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. and his stealing of confidential documents dropped a bombshell Thursday.  In just one sentence he may have destroyed ole Joe.  He called him a “well meaning, elderly man, with a poor memory.” 

This is something William and I tried to warn you all about. The Democrats needed Joe 4 short years ago to beat Trump. Joe is the same then as he is now. He is a fragile, senile old man who should be enjoying a beverage (maybe warm milk?) after playing a round of golf with friends. Hur also added Biden “with his advancing age and diminished faculties, would be seen as a sympathetic figure to a jury.” In essence the man is in steep mental decline and punishing a man like that with potential jail time is mean. Biden had a long-distinguished career in government and was seen as a foreign policy expert, even though Robert Gates, an Obama era defense secretary called Joe wrong on all foreign policy decisions in his career.

But it gets worse….

In the report there is more damning news:

The special counsel’s report was surprisingly blunt. It described Biden’s memory as appearing to have “significant limitations,” characterized an interview he recorded in 2017 as “painfully slow” and said Biden did not remember some key dates of his vice presidency or “when his son Beau died.” Yup, no clue when his term as Vice President started or ended, and no idea as to when his son Beau died…. which by the way, even though his son died of brain cancer, Joe insists he was killed on a battlefield in Iraq.

How could it get even worse? It somehow did!

Rather than waiting for the news cycle to restart the following morning, the Democrats thought it would be a smart idea to try to go on the offense. In a letter to the Special Counsel, Biden’s lawyers called the numerous references to Biden’s memory “gratuitous,” as well as “prejudicial and inflammatory.” Ah yes, the old, that attorney is a know nothing, hack. It won’t work, that attorney actually absolved your client of any wrongdoing…no charges will be filed. In this case it worked to Joe’s favor, if Joe came off as a perfectly competent human then charging documents would have been filed, or at the very least it’s a damning report but no charges are filed. This is the typical offense I expect from the Democrats, how dare you use personal attacks against us. In this case they attacked a non-partisan Special Counsel, sure Mr. Hur is not a mental health expert nor a psychologist but again, charging decisions have a lot to do with mental state of mind.

Somehow Joseph Robinette Biden Jr’s day got even worse.

Yes, you read that right, the Democrats thought it was a smart idea to wheel out old Joe and have him give a press conference in response to the report. It backfired, big time. Instead, a visibly angry Biden made the exact type of verbal flub that has kept Democrats so nervous for months, mistakenly referring to the president of Egypt, Abdel Fattah el-Sissi, as the “president of Mexico” as he tried to address the latest developments in the war in the Gaza Strip. Yep, somehow Mexico is a border country to that part of the world. And Biden himself, with visible frustration, expressed disbelief at the idea he did not know when his son had died: “How in the hell dare he raise that?” He raised it because you said it and it’s very material Joe. Sadly, you came off as an angry white male, who is drunk on power. Like someone else I know, your only playbook is to lash out and declare you are completely and totally fine. Sadly, for you and your campaign, the attack ads from Trump and other parties write themselves.

He had a couple other good one’s too this week….

First, during a campaign swing in Nevada, Biden confused François Mitterrand, a former French president who died in 1996, with the country’s current president, Emmanuel Macron. Then, on Wednesday, he referred twice to having met in 2021 with Helmut Kohl, a former German Chancellor who died in 2017, instead of with Angela Merkel, who led the country three years ago.

Don’t believe me? Check out James Carville’s comments…

“The public does not view his age as — that’s not a Fox News issue,” he said in an interview after the news conference. “It’s not a Taylor Swift rigging the Super Bowl kind of thing. So — I don’t know how you get out of this.”

“The whole day,” he added, “was confirming an existing suspicion.”

Yikes. How about David Axelrod, the guy who ran both of President Obama and VP Joe Biden’s campaigns.

“Fair or not, you can’t un ring the bell,” said David Axelrod, the former strategist for Barack Obama who has emerged as one of the Democratic Party’s leading figures warning about how voters view Biden’s age. Axelrod said the Special Counsel’s report was so troubling for Democrats because it “goes to the core of what is plaguing Biden politically now, which is a widespread fear that he’s not up to it.”

He added: “The most damaging things in politics are the things that confirm people’s preexisting suspicions, and those are the things that travel very fast. It’s a problem.”

These are not quotes from a far-right wing website. The toothpaste is out of the tube, you have a scenario where Democrats are panicking behind the scenes. Ballots have been printed in 80% of the states for the primary, so no one will be able to “out delegate” Joe. The only way is to whack him at convention…. seems like maybe the wheels could be in motion? Carville may be the “old guard” of the party, but Axelrod is very much well connected and informed. Bill Mar said the same thing, Joe will be replaced at the Democrat Convention; something we have been saying for over a year now.

I think Joe is finished, it’s just a matter of how the Democrats do it and with whom?

Oh, by the way, for the second year in a row, Joe will not be doing the traditional pre-Super Bowl interview. Yup, the one day most folks around the world sit in front of the TV all day, and he won’t be on it. This could have been a chance to show a contrast between him, and whacko Donald Trump who will nuke everyone and join us with Russia…but alas, the staffers decided Joe can’t do the interview. They are scared he will say something equally dumb.

And Thursday night’s news conference was an example of the political dangers for Biden, whose missteps are magnified in part by the White House team’s tight control over his media exposure. His aides are so risk averse that they passed even on a pre-Super Bowl interview this weekend before one of the nation’s largest annual television audiences.

Joe didn’t deserve this…. but he is the fall guy for the Democrat party right now.

The Chief