Category: Politics

Chief and I were at the same Thanksgiving table and broke bread with a group of other readers of this blog.  Two leaned left, two leaned right, all of them had issues with the foreign policy takes on this blog.  Specifically, Israel and Ukraine.  Simply put they feel the blog staff here are nationalist, isolationist whackos.  This could not be further from the truth!

I believe we had a lot we could have learned from the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan, but we did not.  Other countries do not like to be occupied.  Outside of Afghanistan, we have NEVER left a country we have invaded.  While keeping troops in Iraq and Afghanistan like we did, we lost numerous additional troops.  For zero reason.

We normally go to war/invasion over false pretenses … weapons of mass destruction anyone?  How many missiles/bombs/drone strikes have we lobbed at another country in the Middle East simply over “we think they are responsible for such and such attack on one of our bases there”.  It makes no sense, in most of these regions we have no reason to be there.

We even enter wars via proxy when we have no real connection to the invaded country.  Take for instance Ukraine. They are not a member of NATO or the EU (European Union). They never wanted to join either!  So now that they are attacked, we need to step in?  Why exactly?  Think about this, we are sending our munitions to a country who is not an ally in any way!

(Editor’s Note: Obama, Biden, and Soros did finance and coordinate the overthrow of the government in Ukraine in 2014. In a sense, we started this mess, but Johnnie Does is correct; what business did we have getting involved in the first place?)

Despite my best efforts, I didn’t land any punches with this group.

In the case of Israel, they are technically an ally, but they are surrounded by countries who have been/are hostile towards our foreign policy.  Egypt kinda blows hot and cold with us, Jordan as well.  Lebanon doesn’t like us.  Iran wants our country wiped off the earth and Syria, Yemen, and Oman like our money but could care less about us.  Israel, simply put, will not be helping us much in any war we engage in because they know they are on an island geo-politically.

When asked my opinion I gave the following regarding both “conflicts.”

On Israel:  We get our navy/ships out of their ASAP and back to their normal positions.  We do not need those strike groups in that region, we have NATO allies and troops stationed not far away.  To be fair, Israel has stated they don’t want, nor need our help. Regarding the numerous, (yeah check it out) numerous bases in Syria and Iraq, it’s time to pull up stakes and leave.  We have a massive airbase in Qatar, another country that in my opinion tolerates us, not really likes us.  That should be enough.  It’s time to bring our young people back home.  Just remember we believe Iran is funding the groups attacking Israel via proxy….

This brings me to my next point.

On Russia/Ukraine:  How come it’s ok for US/NATO to provide Ukraine with money, weapons, planes, vehicles, etc. but not ok when Iran does it?  On that topic, how much has NATO really given to Ukraine?  I read an article stating that the weapons we promised (NATO) will fall short of the goal.  Why must we arm them?  It seems like NATO really isn’t giving much; Germany gave some helmets, France has sent a few tanks and guns.  Seems like the countries sending the most are Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and Poland. Each of these countries are small (the 3 Baltic states) or share a border with Russia and I would argue should be stockpiling not donating.  Why aren’t the other member nations stepping up?  If they don’t want to donate from their stock, they could purchase from US and give.  If the member nations who are not directly neighboring Russia are giving very little what does that tell you about this alliance?  Hate to say it but they are counting on us to bail them all out.  I would be ok with donating outdated weaponry such as missiles, bombs, and guns.  Tanks, planes, and other toys?  No chance.  By the way check out how much money the US and other countries have donated that is flat out unaccounted for… think we could be using that to solve the homeless issue a little?  Ukraine is corrupt, and has a very weak military, we are simply propping them up.  Sucks they got attacked but at some point, we may wish we had those weapons.

Let us address the real reason we are involving ourselves … the military industrial complex.  Raytheon, Boeing (yeah, they make war ships too), Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, and others spend millions to lobby congress each year. In return they get billions in defense contracts.  Over time we accumulate a stockpile of military products.  As such we feel we must use/sell them to other countries.  As a result of this stockpiling, some of our leaders–think Bush’s, Clinton’s, Obama, Lindsay Graham, John McCain types feel we must invade or bomb anyone we do not like.  As you can see it’s a bi-partisan issue here, or I guess one issue both parties can agree on.  Buy me an expensive steak and lobster meal each time I want one, and you will get a blank check for defense spending.  Just look at how hard it is to get a slot on the defense committee in either branch of congress. These folks are smart and know where the lobby money hits hardest.  As such we have decades of pointless involvement in the Middle East and now Ukraine.  While the conflict in Israel has an end or goal, the Ukraine conflict shows no signs of stopping which is exactly what the military industrial complex wants.  They want continued war to get extra contracts. Notice how some are sounding the alarm about us running out of vehicles and weapons?  Again, why are we in these wars?

How would I fix these?  Let’s say I am king for a day.  I am calling Israel and saying what is your end game here?  How about kill the folks leading Hamas who ordered this brutal attack and demand all hostages released?  What they are doing now amounts to borderline genocide.  I am sorry but Hamas is a terror group, they don’t wear uniforms, they have no real military.  Israel looks like it’s going door to door and blowing up whomever appears to be a terrorist, so I guess all males aged 17-60.  This is not a strategy.  Kills those responsible, anyone in the direct way/tunnel etc. is collateral damage. 

After this I am calling the president of Turkey, Tayyip Erdogan and telling him here is the plan from Israel, and the US is pulling its warships out of the Middle East.  I am telling him stop dialoguing with Russia and Iran…. Yeah, he recently started trying to thaw relations with both adversaries of ours.  He has always had the ear of Putin, but Turkey has been one of the countries supplying Ukraine fairly heavily with drones and equipment. Turkey has the second largest army in NATO.  Speaking of NATO, we cannot lose Turkey, as they control the Black Sea, and are a bridge to the Middle East.  By the way check out the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict; Turkey picked Azerbaijan, apparently, we are picking Armenia.  Doh!

As far as Ukraine… they aren’t in NATO or the EU, as noted earlier.  I would call the president and tell him the stockpile is thinning out and he will need to fill the holes elsewhere.  We can send the old things, but the flow is slowing, and he gets no more money!  I do not trust this country or any of their “leadership.” They are very corrupt and frankly I don’t think they really care about their people.  Ukraine is out gunned and outmanned. It’s time to re-trench.  Our goal in NATO is to defend those in the alliance, not those who feel they want to be after being attacked.  It’s time to fortify Finland, the Baltic Countries, and Poland, as they directly neighbor Russia.  Actions have consequence and Ukraine never wanted to join either group.  Russia is being made fun of right now militarily, but those making fun do not understand, Russia can lose 10 million people in this war, Ukraine cannot.  Look to history, even when fighting on our side in WW2 Russia has always been a meat grinder militarily. 

Final thought:  An isolationist policy isn’t what I am advocating.  I am saying our days as being the world’s police force are over.  If we are being honest and looking at this rationally, Russia will take Ukraine, and maybe Moldova, they won’t go farther that way.  Perhaps they also have designs on Georgia and maybe Armenia since Armenia was a former ally of Russia.  Outside of that they do not have many options.  If they attack a NATO country, it’s on.  Then we get involved.  Israel, they have proven they can defend themselves; the show of force was dumb.  Also, we need to think about our military’s sustainability, not in a “green” way but in a numbers way.  No one wants to sign up for the military now. We have been in pointless conflicts for my entire life, I am 37.  We continue to send our young people to die and for what exactly?  Move our troops back, and bring them home, if things get even more dicey, we can always re-deploy.

Johnnie Does

We have blogged about how both Joe Biden and Donald Trump can win next year in the election, but we haven’t spoken about the elephant in the room.  The elephant is the Democrat machine.  The machine knows Joe Biden is too old and is definitely in cognitive decline.  Congressman Dean Phillips of Minnesota and Senator John Fetterman have both made comments about this very thing.  Phillips is an obscure congressperson who announced a primary run against an incumbent, which is a big no-no in either party.  Fetterman who had a stroke during his run for Senate last year has said Gavin Newsom is running a shadow campaign for president.  Folk’s comments like those don’t just come out unless there are legs to them. 

So how do they remove Joe from the ticket you may ask?

Easy, at the nominating convention for their party.  The delegates basically can pick the nominee, and just have a majority not vote in his favor.  You may remember Bernie did this last go round, taking his delegates all the way to the convention, even though he had zero chance of the nomination being his.  I fully believe this is why that Phillips guy is running, just to carry a name to the nominating convention.  I also do not think RFK will be on the general election ballot as an independent, I can’t put my finger on it, but I just don’t see a Kennedy not on the Democrat line. 

Simply said, Joe has major health and mental health concerns, and this blog feels the Democrats are waiting for an error similar to the dreaded “blue screen of death” Windows users fear their computer contracting.  For those reasons we feel Joe will not be the nominee.

Here is the bigger problem.

If not Joe, what do the Democrats do with Kamala Harris?  Democrats have always thrown the black person overboard when necessary, but in this case it is different.  Harris is the sitting Vice President.  She and Gavin do not like one another.  They will not be on the same ticket. Two folks from California is a liability not an asset for the Democrats.  This is what creates the issue.  Kamala was a Senator; however, she will not “path back” to the Senate. First, it’s a demotion, and second, she will look weak trying to get her old seat back.  (BTW her old Senate seat currently has a primary with 3 sitting Democrat congressmen in it, making it no sure thing).  Removing Harris is very risky, as throwing a black woman under the political bus will be viewed in a bad light by the black community.  BLM would be outraged, and we have seen what happens when they riot.  For those who say let Kamal be governor, again there is a problem.  That requires Gavin winning the presidency, which is no sure thing, even against Donald Trump.  Also, there is a primary forming for that position as Gavin terms out in 2026.  (In heavy red and blue states there is a pecking order, and folks get very nasty when you mess up the rotation).  Again, it’s no shoe-in for Kamala.

Kamala doesn’t seem like the type to go quietly into the night when she doesn’t get her way.  It will get ugly.

Let’s say Joe bows out, and Gavin takes over.  Who is the VP?  Can’t pick a white person in that party, not to replace a black woman.  Michele “my belle” Obama doesn’t seem to want the job, and I think Barack wants to just hit the speaker circuit, he seems out on politics.  Al Sharpton has too much blood on his hands, so he is out.  I think there are 2 logical choices, there are 2 Castro brothers from Texas, either would be safe choices, the other being Xavier Beccera.  I am contradicting myself with Beccera as he is a Californian, but if you can read between the lines, you wind up throwing a bone to the Hispanic voters.  Democrats love racist dog whistles and here is another chance to play the “Trump is a racist” card.  Hispanic people outnumber black people about 4-1 (not counting new residents that arrived over the southern border) so any votes lost in the black community are likely more than accounted for moving forward.

It may seem like tin foil hat thinking, but it could work for the Democrats.

They needed Joe in 2020 to beat Trump.  There was no way; Bernie, Mayor Booty judge, or any of those other clowns out that stage was beating Trump last go round.  They knew it and rigged it.  Now that Joe is a liability, looking worse and worse with each speech or appearance, he makes it high time for him to go.  Need more proof?  David Axelrod (Obama campaign manager) and James Carville (Clinton campaign) are both saying Joe cannot win. Regardless of your thoughts about those two, they are very savvy and smart.

Need more proof?  A Fox News article recently advised Joe to “Throw his son Hunter under the bus to save his campaign.”  Folks, a father throwing a family member under the bus is a bad look, even in this case.

Still not convinced?  Why did Newsom vs DeSantis debate happen in Georgia?  Also why was it on Fox and moderated by Sean Hannity?  DeSantis looks like yesterday’s news and Gavin isn’t running so why have this?  Answer…. if Gavin looks good, Joe will be taking a tumble down the stairs, either on his own or someone will be pushing him.

For the Democrats the stakes are too high.

Can Joe Biden win re-election?  Absolutely he can.  It will not be easy, and won’t be fun, but he absolutely can.  I will explain how.

Do everything possible to not have in person debates: 

This is easy, have one of Biden’s inner circle get Covid just before the debate.  This allows the debate to be remote and allows Biden to have his handlers hold up cue cards or the like to help him navigate the debate.  I know this sounds harsh for ole Joe, but he is very obviously in declining health, so much so even his fellow Dems are saying he should step aside.  It only takes one slip up (answering the wrong question, rambling, telling odd stories, staring into the abyss or wondering off set) to erode his support for good.  The perception of being too old won’t sink him, reality will, and his handlers know this.

Make the election about Donald Trump:

Simply put Joe doesn’t have much to run on; the economy is teetering; layoffs are being considered/happening and globally some think WW3 could happen any day.  As a result, he must make it all about Trump.  Insurrection, wanting to overturn an election, and the general chaos that is Trump needs to be front and center all the time.  Remember this folks, Trump is to Democrats what the Clinton’s are to the GOP, essentially the anti-Christ.  The mention of Trump will drive Democrat turnout. 

Make the 3^rd party candidates, 3^rd party candidates: 

Simply put, RFK cannot be getting anywhere near 17% in the general.  No way.  If he does, Trump will have a really great night.  Every vote for Jill Stein, RFK, or Cornell West is a vote taken from Joe Biden.  Joe must shore up this flank and knock the support for each to around 1-3% RFK included.  Note:  neither William or any of the blog staff see a candidate getting 17% who isn’t a major party one.  We see RFK topping at around 5-7% nationwide on election night.

Point out Trump is in no-man’s land: 

Each time Trump comes out with an idea I would immediately question how it would get done.  Simply put, his Party doesn’t like him.  Most in our opinion wanted him to never get elected so they could “own the issue” not the solution…. Healthcare ring a bell?  Trump will be a lame duck, and quite frankly will likely have very small majorities/minorities in both Houses of Congress.  He will need to “twist the arms” of his own just to try to shepherd legislation through.  If the Democrats win the House, I would say more impeachment inquiries will happen.  I would be pointing out constantly that Trump has no support from his own Party, and tepid at best support from moderate Democrats.  We do not know who his VP pick will be, and frankly he pretty much fired his entire cabinet at one point in time or another during this first term.

So, there you kind of have it.  Biden can absolutely win; it may not be easy or fun.  However, I will tease my next blog…. I do not think Joe Biden or Kamala Harris will be on the ticket.

The Chief

It has been said that truth is the first casualty of war. I wish to address this as it relates to the war in Israel.

This is my read after looking at much.

Israel set-up this war to clear out Gaza. Given the rings of security around this area, how else did the quantities of weapons get into the area in the first place? Members of the Israeli government have been provoking Muslims or Palestinians or whatever they call themselves for many years. As documented previously on the blog, they were the power behind Hamas for many years. At a minimum, Israel created an environment that would eventually have this outcome.

Hamas did attack but other than taking hostages and shooting off a huge number of rockets that did kill people, what else did they do? I keep hearing about certain alleged atrocities committed by Hamas but some that are repeated often by politicians and the media, never happened. Beheading 40 babies is claimed over and over again but the evidence has never been made part of the public record. It has been repeated enough that it is assumed a fact. I’m sure that some infant, somewhere, was found in that condition but to me it does make a difference whether such a horrific death was the result of an explosion or shrapnel, or a guy with a knife.

On the other hand, what about this? Many of the people outraged by these alleged atrocities of beheading children are perfectly fine with doing this through all nine months of the pregnancy as long as it’s called “choice”. This happens a lot more than forty times a day in this country and most Liberals and Jews are supportive of these acts of infanticide. We have a whole political party in this country dedicated to maximizing the killing of infants, the infirm, and the elderly. Our people are so deceived that the groups the Democrats want to kill, or cull are the ones that keep them in power.

Oh, then there is the children’s video posted by Israeli television. KANN News posted a propaganda video of children singing the praises of genocide in Gaza. Check out these lyrics:

“The Friendship Song 2023”

Lyrics by Ofer Rosenbaum and Shulamit Stolero

First Stanza:

Autumn night falls over the beach of Gaza

Planes are bombing, destruction, destruction

Look the IDF is crossing the line

to annihilate the swastika-bearers

In another year there will be nothing there

And we will safely return to our homes

Within a year we will annihilate everyone

And then we will return to plow our fields

Chorus:

And we will remember everyone

the pretty and the pure

We will never let our hearts

forget a friendship like that

Love sanctified with blood

You will return and bloom amongst us

The story can be found here.

In addition to all the above, in this country, many supporting Israel are going scorched earth on the rest of the populace. They are demanding support for Israel or risk being cancelled. I don’t support either side in this conflict. The whole mess stinks. I think we should be involved as a broker of peace not a partisan selling arms.

Lastly, why are the people that gave us Covid, lockdowns, fair elections, and all the other lies in recent years to be totally believed when they tell us about Ukraine (remember that war?) or Israel? It seems like Israel just wants to displace people so they can ship refugees elsewhere and confiscate their land.

Yep, while China’s leader was in San Francisco the other day, Joe Biden paid him a visit and endorsed Gavin Newsom for President. As is usual, I think Joe shot-off his mouth and gave away part of the Democrat playbook for 2024.

“I want to talk about Governor Newsom. I want to thank him. He’s been one hell of a governor, man,” Biden said Wednesday during a welcome reception for Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders in San Francisco. “Matter of fact, he could be anything he wants. He could have the job I’m looking for.”

Biden’s eyebrow-raising comment was made at “the most significant event with world leaders in San Francisco in recent history,” according to the APEC 2023 website for the event.

Newsom recently elevated rumors of running a “shadow campaign” amid trips to Israel amid its war with Hamas, before heading to China late last month to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Biden reveals who he thinks ‘could have the job’ he’s running for as 2024 ‘shadow campaign’ rumors swirl

Joe is making an admission against interest (his interest), but we here at the blog think he let at least part of the political cat out of the bag.

The problem is that people think the Democrats elect convention delegates via the Presidential Primary Process; however, this is not true. Most delegates are pledged prior to the vote, these guys, referred to as “super delegates,” are the ones that are a majority and really run things behind the scenes.

My proof is this, if you recall the cycle when Hillary Ran against Trump (2016), Bernie Sanders won many states by as much as 70 percent, but Hillary still won most of the delegates in these states. The system is rigged so that the super delegates have the power. This only becomes a problem when the rank-and-file democrats vote contrary to the wishes of their masters, then you see the fraud that they perpetrate.

What this means in 2024 is that while democrats are dutifully voting for Biden, the super delegates are being lobbied to support Newsom. Gavin only needs to get the support of about 1,600 people in the country to be the dem nominee regardless of how democrats vote in the primaries. The primary elections are just smoke-and-mirrors to give the illusion of a fair election process.

When the Democrat Convention happens, Joe’s removal will be engineered into the proceedings. The only question is, will Biden leave willingly or be forced out?

I maintain that something is afoot.

Note:  This blog is a direct reflection on William pointing out Senator Joe Manchin retired after I sent my blog to him yesterday.

Kind of a weird retirement announcement yesterday from Joe Manchin am I right?  Manchin who I best describe as a centrist, more of a watered-down Democrat announced he was retiring.  At age 76 he is pretty young in political years.  All in all, he likely would have lost re-election, current governor, former Democrat Jim Justice is running, and he likely beats Manchin by decent numbers.  However, Alex Mooney a congressman, hard right Trump supporter is also running.  I do not think Mooney a carpetbagger who moved from Maryland to win a congress seat beats Manchin.  Manchin despite being a democrat is very popular in dark red West Virginia. 

The weirdness about Manchin’s announcement?  He made a reference to traveling around the US and spreading his political message.

What I will be doing is traveling the country and speaking out to see whether there is an interest in creating a movement to mobilize the middle and bring Americans together

If you are wondering, there is a group called “No Labels” who for months has been laying the groundwork to try to field just that…. a bi-partisan ticket for the presidential race.  Manchin is the perfect person to top that ticket.  He is personable, likeable and spews common sense.  No one at this blog would vote for him, however. 

This creates another headache for Joseph Robinette Biden Jr.  Machin will be very popular in certain parts of the country (think Midwest and some parts of the southwest and south), running a centrist campaign with some decent sized donors behind them.  My understanding is “No Labels” has qualified to be on the ballot in several states already.

This is from an August 2023 press release but here are the states so far:  The ten states are: Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Oregon, South Dakota and Utah.

Spotlight Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina as 5 definite swing states based on recent elections.  I have a feeling far more states are to come. No Labels is not forthcoming about their progress on getting on the ballots of various states, but they maintain they are adequately funded to meet their goals.

Think about this, Manchin will need a running mate.  This brings another interesting couple of names up for speculation.

Mitt Romney, he also a soon to be former Senator.  His retirement is also due to kind of dubious reasons.  Romney hates Trump and is a “middle road” moderate type with no future in the GOP.

Kirstin Sinema, the current, no longer Democrat, Senator from Arizona is another option.  She also has no chance of being re-elected as an Independent.  Sinema, a former Democrat, could be a tough sell as a running mate with Manchin.  In a sense it will look like a spoiler ticket to hand the election to Trump.

Romney comes with the baggage that no Trump supporter will flip to this ticket. People in the Romney crowd are either solidly in the Biden camp or supporting RFK.

No one knows what will happen but let me lay out a nightmare scenario for Joe Robinette Biden and his crew.

Assume these following tickets nominate someone in all 50 states.

GOP:                                                     Trump
Democrat:                                           Biden
Independent:                                    Robert Kennedy jr.
Also Independent:                          Cornell West (He is the socialist type, weirdo black guy)
Green                                                   Jill Stein (2020 nominee)
Libertarian                                          There will be a nominee here
No Labels                                            Manchin/Romney/Sinema/Someone else?

The problem above is outside of the Libertarian and maybe RFK, no other party will draw votes from Trump.  The Green will suck maybe 1% from Joe in states that matter.  No Labels could very well take 2-4% pending the ticket and each state they run in.  RFK, as we detailed, will take roughly the same, again pending the states he is running in.  Cornell West is pulling the 1% insane folks vote nationwide. 

Therein lies the issue.  It gets more complex with No Labels likely fielding a ticket in quite a few states.  If Manchin is their guy, how many votes does he steal in Pennsylvania?  Virginia?  North Carolina?  If Sinema is on the ticket, how many from Arizona?  Colorado?  Romney is another wild card, as he will likely be stealing Biden votes in EVERY STATE.

Like I blogged yesterday, none of these third parties win, but how much does the race change?  Biden is looking at his “soft” support ceiling cracking little by little each passing day. I don’t expect significant Biden support to go to Trump, but I can see a number of people abandoning Biden for someone shiny and new. As a result, look for Dems to play hardball by deploying any gimmicks and dirty tricks at their disposal to try thwarting No Labels from fielding candidates.

The Chief

Last note:  Manchin may also be angling for an Exxon Mobil Board seat as he was the top beneficiary of their donations over the years, and he, via his family, owns a gas company. If he is genuinely finished with politics, this would be a logical move.

Photo above: Robert Kennedy Jr. candidate for President

Insurrection, mean tweets, name calling, male chauvinist recordings, little rocket man, crooked Hillary, Sleepy Joe, etc.  Trump is a piece of work; he gets things done but he is a major piece of work.  He was deeply unpopular and has been indicted, god only knows how many times, since he started running again.  How can he possibly be winning an election against Joe Biden? 

Easy

The only way Trump wins a second term is to “rank the race up” like he did with Hillary.  Enter RFK Jr.  Robert Kennedy. He will do exactly that, and he has already begun too. 

While most will tell me that RFK has no chance of winning (they are correct by the way), he will be playing spoiler.  RFK has only one challenge, getting on the ballot in each state.  Democrats like they usually do are very aggressive at filing lawsuits/challenges to keep the Green Party off ballots in states that are “swing” in nature.  Think Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.  The Democrats are also smart knowing full well the Kennedy name will pull pretty good numbers depending on what state he runs in.  RFK is pulling about 15% nationwide, so he has a large draw, and will be invited to all 3 required debates for the general election. 

More on that later, but RFK definitely “ranks up” a race where neither candidate is at or near 50%.

Neither candidate is popular.  Make no mistake Joe Biden is viewed as too old, by a very large majority.  He also is facing a very shaky situation globally with the Middle East and Ukraine being massive problems and the potential of China being one as well.  At home interest rates on debt are high. Couple that with a slowing economy, high inflation, and constant shortages/strikes. Taken together, Biden is in trouble.  He has no issues to sell the voters on except “he isn’t Trump.”  Trump on the other hand is the Republican version of Hillary Clinton. No Democrat will stay at home and watch him get elected. They hate his guts.  Turnout for the Democrats will not be a problem.  It’s who they vote for that will be.  Biden is likely a soft 48% in a two-person race, but closer to 40% with RFK in.

Trump, for all his flaws, as we see moving forward still has a “base/floor” of about 46% in a 2-person race, and in a hypothetical 3-way race with RFK, he is about 42%. These numbers haven’t and will not move.  No one will be moved to vote for Trump, short of RFK being disqualified due to dubious reasons, just like most will not be moved to vote against him rather than for him.  He is just too polarizing.  Joe Biden is the opposite. His support is just Trump haters, and soft-shell Republicans who can’t stand him, think Romney, Lincoln Project types etc. 

Here is where RFK causes a Democrat headache. 

RFK is staunchly anti-vax which gives him popularity with the far-right crowd; however, his support for Reparations is a big turn off to that group.  While I do not see black folks voting for RFK in droves, I could see him peel off of about 5-6% in certain states.  Just look at the math. Take the 2020 election, and in every state, minus let’s say 2% from Trump totals, and minus about 5% from Sleepy Joe.  Now check out what the result would be.  Sure, in big Democrat states, CA, IL, WA, NY etc. it doesn’t make a difference, but I’m not talking about those states.  Check out Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania.  A close race gets not so close.  I know that 2 plus 5 equals 7% not 5-6% but understand Biden has very high support in the big blue states, not in the flyover ones. Such a depressed turn-out for Biden also puts these races outside the margin of lawyers.

The final point on this is the cognitive issue.  Very obvious Joe isn’t all the way there; mentally.  If you can’t see it there may be no saving you.  Trump is a wild card, but he is definitely 100% in control of his cognition.  RFK is fine mentally, he is just a wild conspiracy theorist.  If you agree with Joe politically, but he appears lost in a debate, or at a rally, or interview, you are more likely to not vote or change to RFK.  If you are a Trump supporter, it doesn’t matter, you’re voting for him anyways.

Trump knows he only wins in a 3-man race.  Hence, he is on to the general and with him vs RFK vs Biden. In this scenario, Trump can and will win.

Chief

Editor’s Note: Right after getting this post from The Chief, Senator Joe Machin (photo below) announced that he would not be running for reelection. Machin has long been rumored as a possible third-party candidate for President. Would a Kennedy-Machin ticket be lethal for Joe Biden?