March 2020 – Page 2 – Really Right

Investigating Corona: Is it really just a bad cold?

Radio talk show host, Rush Limbaugh, has repeatedly said that the Corona virus making its way around the planet is nothing more than a bad cold.

This coronavirus? All of this panic is just not warranted.
I’m telling you, when I’ve told you that this virus is the common cold? When I said that, it was based on the number of cases. It’s also based on the kind of virus this is. Why do you think this is COVID-19? This is the 19th coronavirus! They’re not uncommon. Coronaviruses are respiratory cold and flu viruses. There is nothing about this except where it came from and the itinerant media panic.
A Biothreat from China Is Accomplishing All the Goals of Trump’s Enemies

This of course has drawn the ire of folks predisposed to hate the most popular talk show host in America. My question today is to look at the science and see if Rush is right.

Cold or Flu

Silly me. I actually thought there was a difference between cold and flu but that difference is arbitrary. You really can’t tell. I took a look at the highly partisan website for the Center for Disease Control (sarcasm intended) that describes both.

Because colds and flu share many symptoms, it can be difficult (or even impossible) to tell the difference between them based on symptoms alone. Special tests that usually must be done within the first few days of illness can tell if a person has the flu.
Cold Versus Flu

Flu and the common cold are both respiratory illnesses but they are caused by different viruses. Because these two types of illnesses have similar symptoms, it can be difficult to tell the difference between them based on symptoms alone. In general, flu is worse than the common cold, and symptoms are more intense.

Testing for Flu

A number of flu tests are available to detect influenza viruses in respiratory specimens. The most common are called “rapid influenza diagnostic tests (RIDTs).” RIDTs work by detecting the parts of the virus (antigens) that stimulate an immune response. These tests can provide results within approximately 10-15 minutes, but are not as accurate as other flu tests. Therefore, you could still have the flu, even though your rapid test result is negative. Other flu tests are called “rapid molecular assays” that detect genetic material of the virus. Rapid molecular assays produce results in 15-20 minutes and are more accurate than RIDTs. In addition, there are several more-accurate and sensitive flu tests available that must be performed in specialized laboratories, such as those found in hospitals or state public health laboratories. All of these tests require that a health care provider swipe the inside of your nose or the back of your throat with a swab and then send the swab for testing. Results may take one hour or several hours.

As I mentioned yesterday, they are working on a rapid test for Corona but it is still being developed.

Not everyone that is sick will be tested.

Not necessarily. Most people with flu symptoms are not tested because the test results usually do not change how you are treated.
Your health care provider may diagnose you with flu based on your symptoms and their clinical judgment or they may choose to use an influenza diagnostic test. During an outbreak of respiratory illness, testing for flu can help determine if flu viruses are the cause of the outbreak. Flu testing can also be helpful for some people with suspected flu who are pregnant or have a weakened immune system, and for whom a diagnosis of flu can help their doctor make decisions about their care.
Here is CDC criteria for testing and unless you are in high risk group or hospitalized, chances are you will not be tested.

Guide for considering influenza testing when influenza viruses are circulating in the community (regardless of influenza vaccination history)

What is Corona?

Coronaviruses are a group of related viruses that cause diseases in mammals and birds. In humans, coronaviruses cause respiratory tract infections that are typically mild, such as some cases of the common cold (among other possible causes, predominantly rhinoviruses), though rarer forms can be lethal, such as SARS, MERS, and COVID-19.
Coronaviruses constitute the subfamily Orthocoronavirinae, in the family Coronaviridae, order Nidovirales, and realm Riboviria.[5][6] They are enveloped viruses with a positive-sense single-stranded RNA genome and a nucleocapsid of helical symmetry. The genome size of coronaviruses ranges from approximately 27 to 34 kilobases, the largest among known RNA viruses.[7] The name coronavirus is derived from the Latin corona, meaning “crown” or “halo”, which refers to the characteristic appearance reminiscent of a crown or a solar corona around the virions (virus particles) when viewed under two-dimensional transmission electron microscopy, due to the surface covering in club-shaped protein spikes.
Coronavirus

Common human coronaviruses, including types 229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1, usually cause mild to moderate upper-respiratory tract illnesses, like the common cold. Most people get infected with one or more of these viruses at some point in their lives.
Common Human Coronaviruses

Symptoms of COVID-19

Reported illnesses have ranged from mild symptoms to severe illness and death for confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases.
The following symptoms may appear 2-14 days after exposure.*
* Fever
* Cough
* Shortness of breath
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

The CDC calling the spread of the novel coronavirus COVID-19 across the United States “inevitable” has understandably triggered a decent amount of anxiety. While COVID-19—which is thought to have originated in Wuhan, China back in December after jumping from an as-yet-unconfirmed animal host—has a troubling fatality rate of around 2 percent (based on current estimates), the vast majority of people who contract the virus experience only mild, cold-like symptoms. In fact, it’s quite possible that the disease’s fatality rate is artificially inflated; with so many confirmed cases featuring mild symptoms, it’s likely that there are many COVID-19 cases going totally unnoticed.
If you get COVID-19, you’re unlikely to get seriously sick and even less likely to die, especially if you are otherwise healthy. But that raises a troubling question that’s difficult to answer: How do you know if your seasonal sniffles might actually be COVID-19? Here’s a handy guide.
How to tell if a cold is COVID-19

If you have no reason to think you’ve been in close contact with someone who is infected with COVID-19, you should proceed as if you have a cold or the flu. You are unlikely to actually have COVID-19 and, if you do, you are unlikely to get particularly sick.

“Although the focus right now is on COVID-19, seasonal flu remains much more common,” says Preeti Malani, the Chief Health Officer and a Professor of Medicine in the Division of Infectious Diseases at the University of Michigan. “In general, all of us should make an effort to stay home and rest while ill. Everyday respiratory viruses spread easily. Wash your hands, cover your cough. If you haven’t done so, it’s not too late to get a flu shot.”

Lastly, Popular Science says stay out of the emergency room.

If you have symptoms of a cold and have traveled to China, South Korea, Japan, or Italy within the last couple of weeks, you should call your doctor or a hospital and ask how to proceed. You should not go to a doctor’s office or emergency room without calling ahead, as this risks exposing vulnerable people while you sit in the waiting room and interact with doctors and nurses.

How bad is COVID-19

Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told lawmakers during a House Oversight Committee hearing Wednesday that COVID-19 — the disease caused by the novel coronavirus — is probably about 10 times more lethal than the seasonal flu.
Coronavirus is 10 times more lethal than the seasonal flu, Trump’s task force immunologist says

(Fauci) did clarify that 10 times figure actually brings the new coronavirus’ fatality rate lower than official estimates, which hover around 3 percent. The flu has a mortality rate of about 0.1 percent, so, when considering the likelihood that there are many asymptomatic or very mild cases that have gone undiagnosed, Fauci places the new coronavirus’ lethality rate at somewhere around 1 percent.

Conclusion

Unless you’re a powerful person—financial or political— a member of an at risk group, or a healthcare worker, you will probably never know if the illness that you had was a cold, flu, or COVID-19 because you won’t have the lab work to check.

As we learn more about this illness, the fatality rate is dropping. More milder cases are being diagnosed and our healthcare system is better than many other countries which means more people will recover. The fatality rate is now down to one percent and I think that it will continue to decline.

Also, I wouldn’t be surprised if a year from now we discover that many people had COVID-19 and never knew it.

President Trump has often compared COVID-19 to the flu…

Give the above, whether you want to call it a cold or flu, Rush Limbaugh was correct. “Coronaviruses are respiratory cold and flu viruses.” Thus, COVID-19 is a really bad cold.

Investigating Corona: Testing

Folks, like everything else related to reporting this story, you have heard many contradictory claims made about the ability to test for the Corona virus. President Trump and Vice-President Pence are assuring us that the testing bottleneck has been removed while most media reports claim there is a severe shortage of test kits. Why can’t we even agree about this seemingly nonpartisan issue? Today, I’m going to take a look at this question.

How to Test

The best explanation of the test for Corona can be found in the article
How do we test for coronavirus, anyway?

But if you’re not familiar with the tools of molecular biology, the CDC’s testing procedure might as well be written in another language. What follows is a description of how to go from an unknown virus to a diagnostic test in less than a month.

Because we know what the average coronavirus looks like, we have been able to identify areas that don’t change much over the evolution of new members of this family of viruses. And that allows us to obtain sequences of its genome without first isolating the virus.
The first challenge of sequencing a coronavirus genome is that it’s made of RNA rather than DNA. Most of our tools for working with nucleic acids are specific to DNA. Fortunately, we’ve discovered an enzyme called “reverse transcriptase” that takes RNA and makes a DNA copy of it—transcription is the copying of DNA into RNA; this enzyme does the opposite, hence the name. (Reverse transcriptase was first identified in other RNA viruses that need to be copied into DNA as part of infection.) Using reverse transcriptase, researchers were able to make DNA copies of parts of 2019-nCoV as a first step to studying its genome.
But reverse transcription of samples from infected individuals would simply create a mess of DNA fragments from everything present: the patient’s own cells, harmless bacteria, and so on. Fortunately, DNA sequencing and analysis techniques have become so advanced that it’s now possible to just sequence the whole mess, irrelevant stuff and all, and let computers sort out what’s present. Software is able to take what we know about the average coronavirus genome and identify all of the fragments of sequence that look like they came from a coronavirus.
Other software can determine how all these fragments overlap and then stitch them together, producing a near-complete coronavirus genome.

To make a diagnostic test specific to 2019-nCoV, researchers had to look for areas of its genome that don’t change rapidly over coronavirus evolution but have changed enough in this branch of the family that they can be viewed as its distinctive signature. Those sequences can be used to design a means of amplifying a piece of the 2019-nCoV genome using a technique called the polymerase chain reaction, or PCR.

Test Kits

Below is a quote from Politico which is typical of media reports:

A looming shortage in lab materials is threatening to delay coronavirus test results and cause officials to undercount the number of Americans with the virus.
The slow pace of coronavirus testing has created a major gap in the U.S. public health response. The latest problem involves an inability to prepare samples for testing, creating uncertainties in how long it will take to get results.
Exclusive: U.S. coronavirus testing threatened by shortage of critical lab materials

Fox News is piling on too.

America needs to distribute hundreds of millions of test kits to identify people infected with the coronavirus now spreading around the world – a massive amount that far exceeds the number of test kits now available.
Vice President Mike Pence and Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said Tuesday that over 1.1 million coronavirus test kits have been distributed across the U.S. and over 4 million more will be distributed by the end of the week. Unfortunately, that number is woefully inadequate for the task at hand.
Dr. Robert Siegel: Coronavirus response requires several hundred million test kits – a massive increase

Then you see a report like this about two test kits. Yep, two kits for the whole State of Ohio.

COLUMBUS, Ohio – Two new coronavirus testing kits arrived in Ohio on Wednesday afternoon, which will allow the state to test 800 to 1,000 more people, Ohio Department of Health Director Dr. Amy Acton said after a Wednesday COVID-19 briefing.
Nationwide, there’s been a shortage of testing kits.
Two new coronavirus testing kits arrive in Ohio — state can test 800-1,000 more people

Pence is talking millions of tests and then two days ago, I read that only 5,000 people have been tested. WTF?

Public health labs across the U.S. have tested more than 5,000 people, according to the Trump administration. HHS Secretary Alex Azar told lawmakers on Tuesday that U.S. labs’ capacity could grow to 10,000-20,000 people per day by the end of the week.
“Increased demand for testing has the potential to exhaust supplies needed to perform the test itself,” said Robin Patel, president of the American Society for Microbiology. That would limit the testing capacity of public health, hospital and commercial labs alike, she added.
Exclusive: U.S. coronavirus testing threatened by shortage of critical lab materials

This sounds kind of dire but as I’m reading articles like this, I’m also hearing ads on the radio by private labs offering to do Corona tests. So is there a shortage or not?

The same article that says there is a shortage in government labs, says that the private sector has no such problems.

Commercial labs, which have recently started running coronavirus tests, have not experienced any supply shortages, according to a spokesperson for the American Clinical Laboratory Association.
Exclusive: U.S. coronavirus testing threatened by shortage of critical lab materials

So there you have it. Virtually simultaneously we have reports of 5,000 to 1.1 millions people tested depending on the source.

To further complicate the question is test methodology.

Complicating the situation, most labs have been running at least two tests per patient — although that could soon change. The CDC issued interim guidelines on Monday that minimize the number of tests required for a diagnosis. The agency says labs can combine a patient’s nose and throat samples into one test, a move experts say will cut in half the amount of supplies used to test each person.
Exclusive: U.S. coronavirus testing threatened by shortage of critical lab materials

Testing and test kits are often discussed as if they represent a single entity. However, there are a multitude of ways to test for the coronavirus. Different types of tests provide important tools in the battle against this serious infection and contribute in unique ways to our understanding of this virus.
Dr. Robert Siegel: Coronavirus response requires several hundred million test kits – a massive increase

In Ohio, only the highest-risk cases get tested at the state lab — in which patients are elderly, have health conditions or compromised immune systems or are health workers.
Lower-risk cases are being tested by private labs — specifically LabCorp and Quest Diagnostic, as well as at some hospitals, although which hospitals were not specified.
For lower-risk cases, a test cannot happen until there’s an order from a doctor, nurse practitioner or physician’s assistant. And it cannot be ordered until the flu and other respiratory illnesses are eliminated as possibilities.
Two new coronavirus testing kits arrive in Ohio — state can test 800-1,000 more people

CDC Test Kits are for governments only not hospitals

CDC’s test kit is intended for use by laboratories designated by CDC as qualified, and in the United States, certified under the Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments (CLIA) to perform high complexity tests. The test kits also will be shipped to qualified international laboratories, such as World Health Organization (WHO) Global Influenza Surveillance Response System (GISRS) laboratories. The test will not be available in U.S. hospitals or other primary care settings. The kits will be distributed through the International Reagent Resource
CDC Tests for COVID-19

Corona test kits were requiring two samples per person (upper and lower respiratory) but the government has reduced the number of samples to one.

That kit was originally going to allow for 300 to 400 people to get tested. Then the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention changed how specimens could be tested so that two swabs or sputum from a person could be run together, using less chemicals and allowing more people to be tested.
Two new coronavirus testing kits arrive in Ohio — state can test 800-1,000 more people

I have quoted extensively the above to show that there is a shortage of CDC testing kits but that other tests are available. Thus the low number reported by many media outlets is strictly the number of CDC tests while the Trump Administration is counting testing at all levels, public and private.

Please note that if you dig into it, the CDC test kit is exclusive to one vendor. Yep, one company is contracted with the government to supply all test kits for the country. Since they can’t keep up with the demand, the CDC has authorized a competing vendor to supply tests also; however, this requires labs using the alternative method to conduct training and retooling before testing can commence.

Qiagen, a major supplier of the kits, confirmed that its product is backordered due to “the extraordinary pace” at which the world has increased coronavirus testing over the last few weeks.
Exclusive: U.S. coronavirus testing threatened by shortage of critical lab materials

The FDA has also approved a change to the CDC diagnostic test that allows labs to switch from Qiagen’s RNA extraction method to another manufactured by Roche, says Denny Russell, who leads the coronavirus response at Washington state’s public health lab. But getting his lab ready to use the Roche method could take a week in part because technicians will need training to use it.

In the meantime, Qiagen has told customers that it may not be able to fill large standing orders, because it is trying to provide smaller numbers of kits to as many labs as possible, said spokesperson Robert Reitze. The company is ramping up production of RNA extraction kits at manufacturing sites in Hilden, Germany; Barcelona, Spain; and Germantown, Md.

The other issue related to testing is a controversy about whether Trump set aside an Obama regulation to streamline testing.

“The Obama administration made a decision on testing that turned out to be very detrimental to what we’re doing. And we undid that decision a few days ago so that the testing can take place in a much more accurate and rapid fashion. That was a decision we disagreed with. I don’t think we would have made it, but for some reason it was made. But we’ve undone that decision.”
— President Trump, remarks at a roundtable with airline executives, March 4
“This was a very big move. It was something that we had to do and we did it very quickly. And now we have tremendous flexibility. Many, many more sites. Many, many more people. And you couldn’t have had that under the Obama rule, and we ended that rule very quickly.”
— Trump, additional remarks at the same meeting
Trump’s bogus effort to blame Obama for sluggish coronavirus testing

The Liberal fact check websites say this claim is false; however, nobody has ever asked Trump what the regulation was, they just assert he was wrong. Folks, being that there is no shortage of Federal Regulations, I think there is not enough information on the public record to say if Trump is wrong or if the media is erecting a strawman argument to beat-up on Trump just because he dared to attack Obama. Does it really matter or are people just playing gotcha because…?

What I do know, is that since Trump’s comment, things are changing to speed up testing as I’ve shown above. Also, the White House has persuaded insurers to waive any copays for Corona testing.

Closing Comments

Besides the tests discussed above, many people are working now on antibody test kits. These would be a simpler test than converting RNA to DNA and so forth; methods mentioned previously. I think the goal is to have a “quick and dirty” test and then if that’s positive, you would then get a more thorough test.

I think that Corona infections will decrease as we leave cold and flu season but it may be back next fall just in time for a possible vaccine. However, if there is a vaccine, I certainly won’t be first in line, talk about being a guinea pig.

Next up, is Corona a bad Cold?

Investigating Corona: Sean Hannity’s Claims on Emergency Declaration

Due to the disruption caused to our daily lives by people that should know better, I’m starting a series on Corona Virus. I’m trying to separate, myth, fact, and propaganda. I personally have no fear of getting this virus, but many people seem really freaked-out about it.

I have rarely, if ever mentioned Sean Hannity on this blog. Why should I? I’m a cable cutter and don’t get Fox News, ESPN, and a host of other media. Frankly, I think my life is better without constant exposure to the 24/7 news cycle. (It’s not too later to give up cable news for Lent. Just sayin’.) Anyway, I occasionally listened to his radio show; especially, since impeachment and now the Corona Virus.

Last week Hannity said something so damning about Barack Obama that I thought maybe this was the silver bullet to get thru to my Liberal buddy at work. Before deploying it though, I wanted to get it in writing from a solid Liberal source so he couldn’t easily discount the information. I began to investigate the claim that Hannity made on both his radio and television shows on March 2, 2020. Here are transcripts complete with audio and video respectively. Hannity has also repeated it on his radio broadcasts since that date.

Audio Transcript 02/20/2020
SEAN HANNITY (HOST): Now if you want to compare it, let’s go back to the Biden-Obama administration. It was April of 2009 when H1N1 became a pandemic. It wasn’t until six months later — now, I’ll concede, 11 days after that, the Health and Human Services of their administration said it was an emergency — but it wasn’t until six months later when Obama declared a public health emergency. But at that point, it was already a pandemic. By the time Obama-Biden did it, we literally had millions of Americans infected, and over a thousand people had died inside the U.S.

Video Transcript 02/20/2020
Now we need to put that in perspective. Let us compare this to H1N1. Swine Flu Virus as it’s known. Now, this hit the U.S. in April of 2009. It wasn’t until six months later, in October of 2009 — after more than 20,000 Americans were hospitalized, more than a thousand of our fellow citizens died — only then did President Obama and, yeah, quid pro quo Joe declare a national emergency.

Original Source

So where did Hannity get this claim that President Obama waited six months–until 20,000 were infected and over 1,000 had died–before declaring a public health emergency? The only source is a single article from P.J. Media posted on February 28, 2020 by Victoria Taft. Her post then reverberated thru various conservative websites where it was eventually picked-up by Hannity.

While American health officials declared a public health emergency on April 26, 2009, then-Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano downplayed the announcement, calling it “standard operating procedure,” adding that she would rather refer to it as a “declaration of emergency preparedness.” It wasn’t until four months later in October, that then-President Obama himself declared an H1N1 national emergency.
Fact-Check: Obama Waited Until ‘Millions’ Infected and 1000 Dead in U.S. Before Declaring H1N1 National Emergency

Timeline: H1N1 v Corona

Folks, this claim by Victoria Taft and by extension, Sean Hannity, is really bad for Obama and good for Trump. Below is the timeline for N1H1 and Corona from first US victim (Day 1) until President declared a public health emergency.

Oops, Obama declared a public health emergency on H1N1 eleven days after the first US case while Trump did so after ten days.

Here are timelines of both virus outbreaks

CDC Timeline H1N1

April 15, 2009 First infection in US
April 26, 2009 The United States Government declared 2009 H1N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern
2009 H1N1 Pandemic Timeline

October 26, 2009
Washington (CNN) — President Obama has declared a national emergency to deal with the “rapid increase in illness” from the H1N1 influenza virus.
“The 2009 H1N1 pandemic continues to evolve. The rates of illness continue to rise rapidly within many communities across the nation, and the potential exists for the pandemic to overburden health care resources in some localities,” Obama said in a statement.
Obama declares H1N1 emergency

Text of Obama declaration October 24, 2009
DECLARATION OF A NATIONAL EMERGENCY WITH RESPECT TO THE 2009 H1N1 INFLUENZA PANDEMIC

Corona Timeline

December 31, 2019 The World Health Organization (WHO) is alerted by the Chinese authorities of a string of pneumonia-like cases in Wuhan, a city of 11 million people.
January 17, 2020 the CDC announces that it will begin screening passengers arriving from Wuhan at three airports: San Francisco, New York’s JFK and Los Angeles.
January 21, 2020 first US case in Washington State.
Coronavirus timeline: from Wuhan to Washington state

January 30, 2020 First case of transmission in US
January 31, 2020 President Donald Trump issued a proclamation prohibiting non-citizens from entering the United States if they were in China within 14 days of their arrival and Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar declared a public health emergency.
Latest on Coronavirus: Timeline of Events Since the Start of the Outbreak in China

So, both Presidents (or Administration health officials under them) declared an emergency within about ten days.

Two Types of Declaration

Folks, various declarations by the President trigger different laws and regulations to make resources available to various states and people in need. While Obama declared a national emergency six months after declaring a public health emergency, Trump has thus far not declared a national emergency for Corona. If you doubt me, search for yourself. The only national emergency declared by Trump is related to the border wall.

Here’s the video of Obama in April of 2009 declaring a public health emergency.

The posts are conflating two types of emergency declarations a president can make.
On Obama’s response to H1N1:

Obama declared a public health emergency on April 26, 2009 — before a single swine flu death in the U.S. was reported. Such a declaration allows the government to unlock money for antiviral drugs and other medical preparedness measures.

It was in October, after 1,000 U.S. deaths, that Obama made another declaration related to the flu strain, this time a national emergency. That national emergency allowed the U.S. to activate operational plans, such as moving emergency rooms offsite to keep those infected with the virus away from other emergency room patients.

Conclusion

Folks, I’ve dug into this issue with much zeal in hopes of defending Sean Hannity’s claim about Obama’s declaration. However, it is my sad duty to report that Sean Hannity is totally wrong on this aspect of comparing the Obama response on H1N1 and the Trump response to Corona.

The issue where things diverge on the declarations of emergency is the management style employed by each man. Obama, as best as I can research it, was a very hands-off President and let the professionals handle the issue whereas Trump is right in the middle of Corona.

Obama initially authorized $1.5 billion to fight H1N1, whereas, Trump initially asked for $2.5 billion while diverting other money to the fight, pending Congressional action.

Also, Democrats are using Corona as a political weapon against Trump’s reelection; something Republicans did not do to Obama on H1N1. The media is trying to use Corona as a club to beat up Trump like they did G.W. Bush with Hurricane Katrina. In fact CNN has even called Corona, Trump’s Katrina.

Coronavirus as Katrina?: What sunk President George W. Bush and Republicans in his second term wasn’t the war in Iraq. It was his administration’s mishandling of Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
Whispers have begun that President Donald Trump’s handling (or mishandling) of the ongoing coronavirus epidemic has the potential to have political consequences just as devastating for the GOP.
Is coronavirus Donald Trump’s Katrina?

Next up, Corona testing.

Kirk Uhler on the Ropes

Suzanne Jones: Photo from Lincoln Club of the Sierras

Folks, it looks like my $25 advertising investment on Facebook is paying big dividends. Placer County Supervisor, Kirk Uhler, is now trailing his challenger, fellow Republican, Suzanne Jones, in the race for Placer County Supervisor, 4th District. When I last looked in on the race, Uhler was up by about 107 votes but after yesterday’s update was posted, he now trails by 180 votes, a swing of about 287 votes.

Here’s the details.

Meanwhile, a few days and 3,643 votes later…

Just for reference, in Uhler’s 2016 race versus Victor Bekhet, a total of 19,784 votes were cast. Thus I would conclude that Uhler has no hope of beating Jones although the race is within the margin of a recount.

Congratulations to Supervisor Jones.

When you hitch your fate to the Just Us Brothers, such an outcome is no surprise. My only question is will Aaron Park scrub his blog of all the personal attacks on Suzanne Jones (and Tom Hudson) or let them stand?

Lastly, hey Kirk, Aaron always has this outcome when he is given the title of “campaign manager.” Like you, he thrives in the shadows not in the light. For a guy that thinks they’re friends, you don’t pay much attention to Aaron’s track record of mayhem and destruction. An ethical person wouldn’t associate themselves with him. At least now your wife can apply for the director position she’s been coveting without it being a violation of campaign laws on conflict of interest.

Corona Craziness

By Johnnie Does

Folks, it is amazing how a virus originating in China can literally put people’s minds into a pretzel. 90 day guy came into the office today, you guessed it, Lysol Wipes, hand sanitizer and rubbing alcohol in hand. He said his wife forced him to bring all this to the office….I called BS. He said we should buy surgical masks, and discuss our interactions with the public, keep in mind we may get 12 people a month in the office. This is a typical overreaction from a cable watcher.

To be clear the views expressed on this blog in regard to cable are not entirely bad, frankly if you wish to pay to consume it each month, by all means. We just warn here that the job of cable (including Fox News BTW) is to gin up emotions and get people to react irrationally. Look at the events of the past 72 hours in our local city. Elk Grove Unified cancelled all classes and athletics, keep in mind nary a student had tested positive for this virus! Keep in mind the teachers were upset, but the only parental dissatisfaction were parents of the Sheldon High Men’s Basketball team scheduled to play tonight in the playoffs! I’m not bagging on the parents at all, actually they are the most rational people in this situation. Funny thing is, I saw many students of Laguna Creek High congregating and mingling with the public near my office at a local Target today! The horror! Yep can’t attend class, but they are out and about doing what kids do!

The sad thing is at the time of the editorial deadline for this article only 22 people have died in the US from this virus. I say only because the media and local educators are making this thing sound like the Spanish Flu (originating in China too BTW). Of the 22 dead, 15 occurred in the same nursing home in Washington State. We have had 2 cases in Sacramento County, 1 in Elk Grove, there has been 1 death in Placer County….an older man, just like the others who have passed away. Yet we cancelled classes for a week. Santa Clara County cancelled events with attendance over 1000, so the San Jose Sharks will play 3 games with no attendance? The Ivy League has cancelled their basketball tournament. MLB, NBA, and NCAA are considering what to do about their respective sporting events, with MLB and NBA kicking the press out of the locker rooms.

This type of overreaction is befuddling to me. However I have come to expect it. I call it “Hurricane Katrina Risk” meaning you cannot under deliver so you must over react. Why are we cancelling school, when we had 0 positive tests? Telling people not to go to games? Stockpiling food, water, toilet paper, and sanitizer? Come on man! Yet you all wonder why the stocks have been crashing?

Here is some straight talk on this; Corona is very similar to a cold, most likely you are going to contract it. My advice, stay vigilant, maintain good hygiene, and keep your immune system strong. The reality is; I work in a building with a bunch of dentists, its business as usual for them. Ditto at my bank, the restaurant I went to dinner at, the gym, and church. You are far more likely to die from the common cold or the flu, than this virus. Here we are wanting everyone to batten down the hatches and not go outside, and at this time there is nothing to be scared of unless you are elderly, or have health issues. Over reacting is not going to solve our fears here, it just makes it worse. How will you react if this virus kills more people?

Just to give you more anxiety, I heard today the Corona Virus can live in toilet paper, and I heard its transferrable in packages delivered by Amazon. No word on if UPS, USPS, and FedEx are in on the conspiracy.

Johnnie Does

BTW 90 day guy hit the golf links the past 2 days…..with the public. If he is so scared of catching this, I would think a controlled environment is far better than an uncontrolled one. Oh well.

Editor’s Note: This article was submitted yesterday, before Sheldon High School won their playoff game. Also, after this article was submitted, a report was published that an elderly person living in a senior facility in Elk Grove had died from Corona. The elderly woman was over 90 years old and had underlying health conditions.

Corona Virus Triggers Unnecessary Panic

Folks, parts of our cable television watching society are stocking up on antibacterial soap and toilet paper and looking for fallout shelter plans on eBay while the rest of us have purposed just to live our lives. I’m in the latter category.

So, on the first day of a stupid government school shutdown in my community, I’m going on record with a claim that Corona triggers unnecessary panic? Heck yeh! But the market is down 2K just today. So what?

Here’s a few thoughts on the unforced error of cancelling all classes this week in the Elk Grove School District.

In the Saturday release, the Elk Grove School Superintendent claimed he was moving Spring Break to this week, sorry, not happening. Look for the regularly scheduled Spring Break to happen next month in the second week of April. Both parents and teachers are taking off that week regardless of what was claimed in the press release issued on Saturday—much of which was a lie debunked by the Sacramento Bee which I will get to shortly.

You see, many parents scheduled time-off from work just to coordinate with the District’s schedule, buying airline tickets, making hotel reservations, and such long ago. These people will be out the money if they don’t go now. Also, there is that pesky union contract with the District’s teachers stating that the second week in April is the time off for those on both Traditional and Modified Traditional schedules. A reasonable suggestion that I heard from a teacher in the District was that Spring Break will happen as scheduled and a few extra days will be tacked onto the end of the school year. We’ll see if that prediction pans out.

As I’m writing this, a claim has surfaced that one child in the District tested positive. If that’s true, then please tell me what is the metric that children will ever be allowed to return to school? By being arbitrary, this Superintendent has opened a can of worms that he may never get back in the bottle. Just by being in school a child might give an illness to another, this is reality. If this is his metric, how can he ever risk that classes convene again?

The grilling given to the Elk Grove Superintendent by the Sacramento Bee’s Marcos Bretón is priceless.

More shocking. Saturday’s announcement, with such widespread implications, including the possibility of triggering public anxiety and panic, was rolled out with little or no coordination between the county’s public health department or key elected officials in Sacramento, even though a letter to parents Saturday said “this complex decision involved close collaboration and coordination with our Board of Trustees, labor groups, the Sacramento County Office of Education and the Sacramento County Public Health Department.”
If county health officials were communicating with the Elk Grove district all along then that message didn’t get out to county elected officials.
They were all caught flat-footed: Sacramento County Supervisor Phil Serna, the chair of the board this year, learned about the Elk Grove announcement when word of the district closure caused his phone to “blow up.”
Serna was at a campaign event for a colleague in the Arden Arcade area Saturday afternoon when he learned. With him was Sacramento Democratic state Sen. Richard Pan, a doctor, who has spent weeks trying to calm public fears about the coronavirus. With them was Sacramento Mayor Darrell Steinberg and Assemblyman Kevin McCarty, D-Sacramento.
All of them learned at the same time and without warning.
Closing Elk Grove schools gives a shocking lesson in how not to handle the coronavirus

Serna, Pan, Steinberg and McCarty all huddled together after learning about the Elk Grove announcement from The Bee. Together, they have planned a 1 p.m. news conference on Sunday at the Sacramento County Board of Supervisors offices at 700 H St.
The first question that should be answered there must be this: How could the largest school district in Northern California announce it was shutting its doors in a complete vacuum of information and leadership?

Why is a serious step such as closing a school district trotted out via letter to Elk Grove parents as if the contents of the letter referred to a bake sale and not an issue with serious health and policy implications?
And here is another question: Why would EGUSD, apparently with the OK of county health officials, shut down the entire district when such a drastic step is not recommended by state health officials? By late Saturday, the California Department of Public Health released its guidelines for schools, colleges and large public events to protect against the spread of COVID-19.
Nowhere in those recommendations do state officials call for the closure of a district without a single student or staff member testing positive for COVID-19. And up until now, there hasn’t been an EGUSD student or staff member who has tested positive. State health officials only contemplate closing an entire district if there have been students, teachers or staff members who have tested positive at multiple schools in a district.

But entities such as EGUSD can’t simply act without consideration for how the decision will affect a general public already jittery about the coronavirus.
As Steinberg said, Sacramento County must have a coordinated message. They need protocols. Stories of this import cannot simply be dropped like a stink bomb in the dark.

But maybe if it hadn’t been made in such a vacuum someone could have helped the Elk Grove educators make this call in a way that didn’t seem premature and haphazard.

Panic is what happens when a health crisis is mismanaged and when people who should be in the loop are not. This is not the way it should be done.

Marcus is right on this issue. (As always, I’ve quoted him extensively because this article will soon find its way behind McClatchy’s pay firewall.) Marcus, “stink bomb” is a much politer term than the ones I’m thinking of right now.

Since this opinion piece was posted, the high school boys’ basketball game is rumored to get an exemption, while the high school prom last Saturday night was killed five hours before it was scheduled to begin; off district property I might add.

Perhaps educators should try staying in their lane and let public health officials do their job. That might actually be refreshing. A coordinated response is needed not arbitrary nonsense. Panicking and then telling others that you didn’t is disingenuous and harmful; especially when your actions affect thousands of people and millions of dollars. Elk Grove’s Superintendent needs to be fired, but it won’t happen until summer just so he and the District can save face.

Folks, the Corona virus fears will blow over and the stock market will recover. These issues are just distractions to keep folks on the 24-hour news channels employed. Both of these issues will be in the country’s rearview mirror before long and they’ll go on to some other story while we that live in Elk Grove deal with the aftermath of this out of control bureaucrat.

Rick Santelli Shows His True Colors

By Chief

Rick Santelli is a commentator on CNBC who specializes in the bond/treasury markets. He usually contributes throughout the day as he reports on the swings in the market. Thursday, he made a complete and utter fool of himself and backed it up today with a halfhearted apology regarding the coronavirus.

Here is what he said Thursday:

“People are getting nervous, listen, I’m not a doctor. I’m not a doctor. All I know is, think about how the world would be if you tried to quarantine everybody over the generic-type flu. Now I’m not saying this is the generic-type flu, but maybe we’d just be better off if we just gave (the coronavirus) to everybody and then in a month it would be over, because the mortality rate of this probably wouldn’t be any different if we did it that way than the long-term picture,” Santelli said, “But the difference is we’re wreaking havoc on domestic and global economies.”
CNBC’s Rick Santelli suggests giving everyone coronavirus to spare the economy

Maybe someone should check themselves in to the doctor for a foot in mouth disease exam?

Here is his apology, if you can call it that:

“Yesterday, during a segment on ‘The Exchange, ‘I said ‘maybe it would be a good idea to expose everybody to the coronavirus, maybe it would be better off for the economy, the global economy or the markets in general,’” Santelli said of his comment that sparked outrage and calls for CNBC to fire him. “It was the dumbest, most ignorant, stupid thing anybody could have ever said.”
CNBC’s Rick Santelli sorry for saying we should infect ‘everybody’ with coronavirus to help economy

“It was just a stupid thing to say,” he said. “It’s not appropriate in this instance and we are resilient, both in the United States and in the globe. That resilience will get us through. The idea of something so absurd, I apologize, and I apologize to everybody on the segment and all my peers at CNBC.”

So ok, a lot to unpack here but here we go. First off Santelli is your typical 90 day calendar guy, when the market is up all is well, when the market is down, he incites panic. He knows no other lot in life. He is paid to comment on the news and react to market swings but how can any sane human being spout off the vomit he did on live TV and think they got away with one? Give coronavirus to everyone….nice pal…how about those of us who lack a gold plated $0 out of pocket healthcare plan Rickster? How do you expect us to come up with the money for that? Or should the government just pay for it…since in some ways it sounds like a science project to you? As far as your comment about mortality….this virus is wreaking havoc in nursing homes, and hospitals, targeting mostly the elderly and those with weak respiratory/immune systems. So it sounds like your goal is to create a stronger human race….nice. As far as his apology goes, Santelli was obviously sat down by someone far higher on the pay grade chart than him, because what he said in his apology made even less sense. He tried comparing corona virus to smallpox saying you were encouraged to expose others to it, so they could get it, and get the vaccine.

In closing I will say this, Rick is not sorry, those are his true beliefs. He saw the market get very choppy and decided to white knight and declare “we need to get this virus over with because….my retirement!” His comments that this virus is affecting both the domestic and foreign economies is somewhat correct, but the reason people are panicking is because of idiots like you Rick. There could not be more misinformation spread about this virus, both in print, online and TV media. It’s being made out to be an instant killer, with the infected quarantined off and cut out of civilization. While there is no known cure or vaccine, it seems like quarantine and maybe some medicines are aiding in people surviving. Think about that for a minute, this bozo wants to infect everyone with this, knowing there is no cure, which will overload our hospitals and health care system, because again…his stock account. To make matters worse for Rickster, today the jobs report came out….and unemployment dropped yet again. Folks the underlying economy is doing just fine. We are in a small, cable ratings fueled drop in the stock market, that’s all. Go out to lunch, dinner, or go to a gym, church, etc. People are packing these places, yet the talking heads are talking about this virus 24/7. The NBA and MLB are warning people not to go to games, and to essentially shelter in place. Rick, you are not helping.

Rick, stocks go up, and down, the overall economy is not based on whether the “Dow is up or down.” I’m actually not surprised you blew your smoking hot take for all to see, you like to rile people up, you succeeded, now more people will sell off, because they don’t want to get burned. I am however disappointed in a fellow CNBC employee, Kelly Evans. She didn’t challenge your BS at all.

The Chief

PS Santelli is a Tea Party guy, no real shock there.

Elk Grove Schools Cry “Wolf”

At noon today, Saturday, March 7, 2020, the Elk Grove School District informed teachers that due to fears of the Corona Virus, all classes in the entire District are cancelled the week of March 9.

Lest you think that was enough, Monday has now been declared as “Spring Break.” The District says there is nothing to fear. Really? So way are classes cancelled? Why, in the middle of a weekend, did you move Spring Break up one month?

Here’s the publicly released letter to parents.

Oh, rumor mill amongst teachers is that Sacramento Unified has also done likewise.

Ok, so one family might test positive and the whole county is on indefinite lockdown. Please note in the above letter, they reserve the right to cancel classes indefinitely. Again, this is not Ebola. Somebody is watching way too much cable news.

Is Bernie an Armchair Revolutionary?

Bernie Sanders is stuck in the 1970’s; a time when a minority of people in the United States fawned admirably over the idea of a people’s utopia. When guys like Bernie visited Cuba or the Soviet Union, they got guided tours by people that worked for Vladimir Putin (or whoever was running the KGB at the time). They were conducted on a controlled tour to see how the ruling class lived in such places and told that this was the lifestyle that everyone in such a society could achieve. What they experienced during their visits was diametrically different than what people back home were saying about life under communism.

Folks like Bernie had soured on Vietnam and Watergate and thus were inclined to discount Western critiques of communism. Also, socialism was on the ascendancy in Europe which cherry picked various parts that they liked and selectively applied them to public policy. This reinforced the belief that transformation from capitalism was not only possible without revolution but desirable. This formative period for Bernie is his touchstone for what should be.

History has taught us a much different lesson about how radical change is implemented. Barack Obama took some concrete steps towards socialist transformation but was halted by Republicans taking control of Congress. Ultimately, Donald Trump was elected to correct Obama’s overreach—especially by Executive Orders. The Obama revolution was largely beaten back by Trump or significantly reduced in its impact.

This Presidential cycle, Democrats on the national stage are unanimous that they want to transform the United States into a socialist nation. There was little difference in the top tier candidates on any issues.

Sanders was the only guy in the Democrat field that was honest about his goals. I had assumed that Bernie was a true believer and tired of half measures. Given his age and rhetoric, I thought he was going all in on making the revolution happen now. I viewed this campaign as him giving his beliefs as a legacy to the next generation. I took him at his word on the campaign trail.

If you heard his speech the night of Super Tuesday, Bernie sounded ready to burn our whole country to the ground.

Now, what makes this movement unique is we are taking on the corporate establishment, we are taking it on the greed of Wall Street. The greed of the drug companies who charge us the highest prices in the world. The greed or the insurance companies. And given the existential crisis of climate change, we are saying to the fossil fuel industry… We are saying to the fossil fuel industry, their short-term profits on not more important than the future of our country, or the world.
But we are not only taking on the corporate establishment, we’re taking on the political establishment. But we’re going to win because the people understand it is our campaign, our movement, which is best position to defeat Trump. You cannot beat Trump with the same old same old kind of politics. What we need is a new politics that brings working class people into our political movement. Which brings young people into our political movement. And which in November we’ll create the highest voter turnout in American political history.
Super Tuesday Speech Transcripts: Biden, Sanders, Warren, Bloomberg Speeches to Supporters

I thought it was entertaining when the next day, Mark Stein took after Bernie for being spineless. Upon his return, Rush Limbaugh also piled on. Why?

Because Bernie was outmaneuvered yet again by the Democrat Establishment. The power brokers in the party called in their markers and cleared the decks of everyone but Warren on Monday. Warren split the vote to thwart Bernie on Super Tuesday and give Joe Biden a path forward to the nomination. Her job now completed, a few days later, she too, stepped aside.

Meanwhile, since Super Tuesday, Bernie has not attacked Joe Biden for anything. Joe is the most target rich opponent that anybody would ever hope to face in politics and all we get from Sanders is crickets. I have yet to hear a single media report about Bernie or what or where he is. What kind of guy ever succeeded in fomenting a revolution that quit at the first sign of adversity?

I think the young people that believe Berie’s B.S. are in for a shock. They finally find a politician that believes just like their college professors and after going all in for Sanders, he just leaves them hanging. Depending on what happens next, Bernie’s loyal followers might decide to sit out the election in November.

Bernie wouldn’t be the first guy to stake-out a position that is all about image and lacks substance. I get the feeling that the words of the man don’t match his deeds. Thus I’m starting to view him as an armchair revolutionary.

Will Bernie fold like a cheap suit or will he soldier on for the cause? We all know there’s not another Presidential run in his future because he’s too darn old. What he does in the next few weeks will be enlightening to watch.

Conversations with the Naïve: The Real Debt Dilemma

I recently had a friend of mine who reads this blog ask if I “ever have any fun in my life, and what my future looks like?” This person referenced that the blog here hates debt, and apparently no one on the editorial staff will spend a dollar, on anything. This is complete and utter malarkey. What we are doing on this blog isn’t pointing out you should be eating a diet of ramen every day, we are pointing out that life should be lived within your means, but also with an eye toward the future. No one on this blog is a financial advisor who believes in telling clients not to take trips or have fun, while they live the good life. I’ll explain further below.

Sadly today we live in a world of illusion where style is far more important than substance. We as a society tell people to splurge on unneeded things constantly. We no longer view a pay check as revenues earned, we view it as a means to pay our monthly bills, and that is the wrong approach. We run everything through the credit card under the guise of a 1% cash back, or the 30 day terms. We see a red tag that proclaims “sale” and feel compelled to buy. The blog posts on this site have nothing to do with hoarding your money, buying gold, or locking yourself in your house and refusing to part with it. It is about planning for a very uncertain future, no one has a crystal ball, and things can change very rapidly as we have learned with the Coronavirus and its direct impact on the stock market, and global/domestic travel.

Case number 1: The former girlfriend who works 3 hours a day, takes 2 classes a semester at a local junior college. She is always broke well prior to the end of the month. After a little uncovering, the main culprit was marijuana. In a close second, credit card debt, and late car payment fees. All of this is a result of a general lack of drive and care towards her future, keep in mind she is 30. Her most important and immediate goal is getting stoned. Her intermediate goal is getting married and having kids, sounds like career advancement is on hold indefinitely.

Case number 2: The alcoholic guy we detailed some time ago. Never has any money, and is subletting a bedroom in the house he rents so he can make ends get close to meeting. While he never has money to buy food, or pay his debts, he has an endless supply of wine that would make a winery jealous. This person is on his 4th DUI in his 80 years on this earth and has recently been banned from drinking at church functions from 2 church groups. Most folks dream of their golden years traveling or relaxing, he lives his stumbling and stammering.

Case number 3: The guy who is 75k in credit card debt, in addition to his other bills as detailed here. He has champagne taste on a beer budget and wants a bailout. He is very desperate now and likely to lose both cars, and his house, and possibly his marriage. Keep in mind he has 2 young children to boot. His life is very similar to a bad car wreck, you know you shouldn’t look, yet you can’t take your eyes off of it.

Case number 4: A guy I have known since college, he got his now wife pregnant, and their kid is very special needs. He just recently wrapped up his degree, they got married, they have no income as she must stay home with child, and he is an intern…at age 33. Credit card debt? You guessed it, and they live in a bedroom at his parent’s house.

Case number 5: A person I’ve also known since college. Student loan and credit card debt, a 33% vehicle loan, every add-on imaginable, because well you only live once, and works a zillion hours a week at a theatre. I call her “red tag lady” because she needs to buy something everywhere she goes, and the only concept of a budget she has is when her card is declined, that means she needs to pay toward it. Case in point. We went out to dinner and keep in mind our coupon included enough food for 2, she decided to add on an appetizer and order take-out bacon fried rice on top of what amounts to a pretty large meal to begin with. A $45 coupon quickly turned into an $85 meal, with no alcohol included by the way. The most important thing in her life is finding a boyfriend right now, or as I call it a bailout.

Case number 6: A fellow church goer. Major health issues, all of them self-induced, fast food is a staple of the families diet, as in three times a day every day. He refuses to work, forcing his wife to labor almost all hours of the day. Credit cards? Check. High Interest loans? Check. A massive drug addiction? Check, he blames it on opioids. He is a hopeless case.

Now contrast that to myself.

I worked very hard at my job, a boutique office with just 1 colleague. Drove a 14 year old car until it finally decided to cry uncle, saving me a pant load on car insurance and car payments. I learned to cook, and budget at a very early age, and had to bite the bullet and live at home for about 3 years after college while I found my career and learned a budget. While I may have hit the bottle a bit (a habit I’ve since kicked) I learned quite a bit during my time at home. I banked money, and invested in myself. I learned everything about the industry I worked in, almost obsessively. By year 3, I was going to take the test to start my own business with this industry, I passed, becoming the youngest ever. 2 years later I applied for and was accepted to take over someone’s office who was retiring, I was elated, maybe a bit scared but elated. My office partner (boss) took me out to lunch and said I can’t believe I’m going to lose you, but I’m going to make you an offer you can’t refuse. He made me partner and my cut is 49% of the business after tax income, he is still the owner, and a majority one at that. I agreed, and my life has changed big time since that date. I bought my house 5 years ago, and am making double payments to reduce my mortgage (I don’t call a mortgage debt) and while I had to buy a new car, I chose to lease and the terms are 0%. I have no debt and never had any. I may pay with credit cards but I pay in full each month. I started my Roth IRA at 25, and at present its value is about $75,000. I also have a stock “mad money” account valued around $75,000. This is in addition to about $15,000 in emergency savings which will only be tapped to pay bills. Keep in mind I’m 34. I have traveled to a bunch of different states and take several trips a year.

Conclusion: Contrast me to the 6 cases named above, it’s not an exercise in tooting one’s horn. It’s about knowing a need versus a want, and being meticulous and sticking to a budget. Make yourself indispensable and you will reap the rewards. Praying over decisions and not making rash one’s helps a ton as well. I work in an industry and in a field that is going the way of the dodo bird, hint it’s similar to a travel agent. I know this job will not be there for me… I’m preparing…just like you should be doing for the next recession/political risk. Trust me, banks play fast and loose with credit/financing during boom years, when things go bust they do not play nice. To tie this all together, the 6 cases named above? One claims to be a Republican, the other 5….they all support Bernie, hoping that you and I will be bailing them out. Lather. Rinse. Repeat.

Johnnie Does

PS. The new boat/car/jet ski’s etc. that you had to have fresh off the dealer’s lot; someone else will be buying those off you for a song if a recession hits as hard as I think it will. That someone is likely to be a guy like me who has saved up money during the good times. In the end, that boat/jet ski/car you just had to have but only took out a handful of times will be forfeited and given to another.