CRA’s Great White Hope

As X and I have painstakingly documented on this blog, both the State of California and the California Republican Assembly (a.k.a. CRA) are in a death spiral.   In the unlikely event that the State hits bottom before the CRA, what should the last vestiges of this once great organization do for our state? Clearly, since voters overwhelmingly rejected Travis Allen as their savior (9.55 % of the vote), traditional methods are not working. CRA’s endorsements are more ineffective than campaign phone calls and going door-to-door on precinct walks. Who will deliver us from the wrath to come? (Garvin Newsom)

Most of us instinctively know that the economy of California will be crushed by the burden placed on the people and economic engine of this once prosperous place. We are transforming ourselves into a third world banana republic. No middleclass will remain; only the very rich and very poor. We will be a veritable warzone of crime, chaos, and tyranny.

Gavin Newson waiting to crush California’s economy

No state has ever filed bankruptcy but under Jerry Brown, we are on the short list of those likely to do so. With Garvin, we should rise to the top of that list very rapidly. Who will clean-up the mess that will be created by eight years of Newsom? If the Trump-Pence Administration is running the country, Democrats won’t be successful getting a bail-out from the Great White Father in Washington. (Sorry, just trying to relate to Elizabeth Warren supporters in the audience.) CRA secretly hopes Newsom & company screw things up so bad that voters will be begging them for relief. Clearly such drastic times will need drastic measures. What will happen when California becomes financially insolvent? What is CRA’s solution?

First, we here at ReallyRight feel your pain. We’ve been warning you for years that this is coming. However, instead of just a sarcastic “told you so”, we would like to offer a humble solution and message of hope for our friends at CRA.

If Democrats turn California into a warzone then it will need reconstruction, right?  Well twice before our great nation needed reconstruction, once after the Civil War and once after the Great Depression.

Looking back, we can see how screwed-up that FDR and the New Deal left the country so this Democrat model of more big government is clearly not what California needs. We are turning into the Soviet Union just fine without another push in that direction.

FDR gave us the Raw Deal of socialism

But the post-Civil War era was started as a reconstruction effort by Republicans lead by Abe Lincoln. Clearly CRA can draw inspiration from a guy like Honest Abe. However, reconstruction did have its drawbacks, ask any Southerner. So how can CRA stay true to their principles while avoiding the pitfalls of Southern Reconstruction?

Honest Abe will inspire CRA to greatness

When California files bankruptcy, a Federal Court will appoint a Receiver to oversee the financial health of the State. Think of this as a czar of fiscally responsible spending and a check against the excesses of the Legislature. A Federally appointed overseer with this amount of power must be a guy who can balance several things, namely he must respect the Constitution, know the inner workings of government, and protect us from the Trump-Pence Administration.

Perceiving both the peril and opportunity that California Reconstruction will offer the CRA, clearly only one man is qualified for the job. CRA needs a proven leader that can stand-up to the Washington establishment while knowing the legacy of misfortune created by Reconstruction wrongly done. This man also has intimate knowledge of the workings of California because half of those fleeing the tyranny of California are moving to his State. Ladies and gentleman, I humbly suggest that CRA draft Senator Ted Cruz to lead California thru Reconstruction and to a new era of prosperity. With so many undocumented refugees from California in his midst, Ted won’t even have to resign as the Senator from Texas to save us.

Ted Cruz—American needs you more than ever

Think about it. Cruz is the perfect guy and he doesn’t even have to move here to do the Receiver job. Look at the precedents that already exist in our state. California no longer requires that you be a citizen of the country to vote or have a driver’s license. You no longer must be a resident of the state to have the privilege of collect taxes for our state (thanks Amazon). You no longer have to be a California resident to buy a car meeting our fuel emissions standards. You no longer have to live in our state to be the police chief (thanks Elk Grove) I could go on but you get the point. California is a state of mind not a geographical place.

Given all the above, what can prevent Ted from saving us? The candidate that the voters rejected will be the cornerstone of our recovery. Friends in CRA you now have a reason to hang tough, your renaissance is coming. When the time comes, Ted will vindicate your trust in him. Eighty percent of you trust him implicitly, it’s just taking the rest of us time to get up to speed on this reality.

CRA Scorecard for June 2018: Epic Failure

As you might recall (no pun intended), the week prior to the June election Secretary of State Alex Padilla reported that:

Republicans are now just a quarter of registered voters in California, with both Democrats and independents outnumbering the party that once dominated politics in the Golden State.

The percentage of voters registered as Republicans has been falling steadily over the past two decades, from 38.5 percent in 1998 to 25.1 percent in the latest figures.

Republican Party Drops to 3rd Place in Latest California Registration Numbers

I decided to take a look at the CRA endorsement list for the June election and see how they did. It doesn’t seem fair that MR. X seems to frequently whack this organization and I don’t. I looked at the statewide races of Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Secretary of State, Controller, Treasurer, Attorney General, Insurance Commissioner, Superintendent of Public Instruction, and US Senate. (These are in the order used by the Secretary of State website and not the CRA endorsement list.)

Of these nine offices, CRA failed to endorse in the following races: Controller, Insurance Commissioner, and, Superintendent of Public Instruction. Thus CRA ceded one third of the races.  Of these three, the Controller race has a registered Republican that made it to November with no help from CRA; recovering Republican Steve Poizner came in first for Insurance Commissioner; and Superintendent of Public Instruction did not indicate party on the ballot so I don’t know who they were. The implications of this inaction is that we must conclude that CRA doesn’t care about California.

Look at what each of these offices do.

Controller
First, Betty Yee is arguably the worst incumbent on the ballot. Yes, even worse that Garvin Newsom. Her track record is terrible and in my opinion, she is the worst Controller that California has seen in decades.

The backbone of California’s financial records system is a UNIX based program called CalSTARS that was implemented last time Jerry Brown was Governor back in 1983. Yeah, this is the program that caused the Y2K crisis in California. Millions were spent to pay retired state employees to return to work to patch this P.O.S. so it could handle four digit years.

For many documents that her office processes, SCO has a backlog to 2015.

Under her leadership—or lack thereof—the Controller’s Office is slower and less efficient in a state that thinks it is the technology leader of the world. Can you say Irony? Oh, her Agency still uses tractor-feed paper and dot-matrix printers to give documents to various departments because they aren’t available in digital formats.

I could go on but the thing that should really frost not only CRA but all Californians is that Betty Yee and Fiona Ma—the Treasurer candidate—are personally responsible for the disinformation campaign that dismantled the Board of Equalization last year. Since CRA’s current President, Tom Hudson, worked for BOE, I would think it a slam-dunk that CRA had a candidate they could support to “take-out” Yee but no dice. Like everything else under Hudson’s leadership, all you get from CRA is crickets.

You would think that Hudson, Sue Blake, George Runner and the other so-call Republican stalwarts would stand-up for themselves and their livelihoods even if they won’t stand-up for the taxpayers that they claim to represent at BOE. Democrats threw the token black guy (one of their own) under the bus and all you got was crickets.

Insurance Commissioner
CRA claims they hate Obamacare. We all know that Obamacare was a stopgap solution on the socialist road to single payer healthcare. So did CRA run or endorse anybody that is running for Insurance Commissioner? Heck No! Once again, their rhetoric and their actions don’t agree.

CRA has had many opportunities to change their endorsement process to conform to the “Jungle Primary” system that we have in California. They have refused to face the reality that not every race will have a Republican in it. At my last CRA convention (you know the one where they overwhelmingly endorsed Lyin’ Ted), I brought the issue before the convention and they killed it at the earliest opportunity.

In his Republican days, Poizner was a CRA endorsed candidate but in a race with no Republican, CRA didn’t have the guts to go with him when he clearly is the best guy on the ballot.

Superintendent of Public Instruction
At my last CRA Convention, much energy was spent bashing Common Core but again CRA has no dog in the hunt for this job; somehow I don’t think it’s because they figured-out that in California, Common Core is here to stay.

Secretary of State and Attorney General
CRA did actually hit two winners in the statewide offices. For Secretary of State, Mark P. Meuser, came in second. For Attorney General, Steven C Bailey also came in second. If the June results are any indicator, both Republicans will face the slaughter in November.

Sadly, this brings us to the third act of the CRA train wreck. CRA had four big misses in the endorsement department. Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Treasurer, and US Senate.

Before I get into the details, I know some will try to nitpick what I’m about to say so in the interest of full disclosure, the numbers used below are from the Secretary of State’s website on June 12, 2018.

Governor
At Convention, CRA spent much time debating the pool of potential candidates and threw their weight behind Travis Allen. Meanwhile, their arch enemy, Donald J Trump, threw his support to John Cox. From the votes tallied thus far, Cox received 25.8 percent of the votes cast while CRA’s all-star candidate received 9.55 percent. Trump’s guy got about three times the number of votes.  Oh, Allen came in fourth place  in the race while Trump’s guy will be on the ballot in November. Since the jungle primary was implemented, this is the first time a Republican gubernatorial candidate has made it to November.  For that we have Donald Trump to thank not CRA.

Lieutenant Governor
CRA fared even worse in their choice for governor in waiting. Their choice was David Hernandez. Hernandez received 6.1 percent of the vote. Out of four republicans on the ballot, CRA’s anointed came in fourth. My prolife Facebook friends said to go with Cole Harris who ended up being the top Republican vote getter. Sadly, Harris was beat by two Dems so he won’t be going to November. Oh, CRA’s guy came in seventh place.

Treasurer
CRA had a chance to go after Fiona Ma with their choice of a Treasurer candidate. They picked Jack Guerrero. Jack apparently didn’t know jack and came in third place. He was bested by Ma and Republican Greg Conlon.

US Senate
From a Conservative Republican point of view, if any candidate on the ballot embodies the opposite of what is good, right, and Constitutional it is Dianne Feinstein. Surely CRA had a guy to go after the ancient Senator from San Francisco. Charged with this task at their Spring Convention was the noble Tom Palzer. In a field of 32 candidates, surely the CRA endorsement would be decisive in propelling a solid Republican to the head of the pack. 11 of the candidates were Republicans. Among Republicans, Palzer placed a solid fifth place thanks to CRA. Sadly, he came in seventh place overall with 3.09 percent of the statewide total.

Conclusion
CRA is a lost and irrelevant organization. In my mind, their “jump the shark moment” was the endorsement of Ted Cruz. Their vote of over eighty percent endorsing Ted Cruz on the first ballot proves that they are out of touch with rank-and-file Republicans. They are bleeding membership and still have many paper clubs in their midst. Tom Hudson was supposed to be a caretaker President to heal the organization and provide stability and integrity. Instead, he is the undertaker President leading the group into the wilderness to atrophy and die. They should either pull the plug on the organization or hand it over to Johnnie Morgan and his group in LA. Either way, the current leadership needs to walk away now.

CRA—a dumpster fire waiting to be extinguished

 

California Republicans Continue to Fail

The Republican Party in California is dying a very slowly painful death by 10,000 cuts and they have no one to blame but themselves.  The CRA is the main culprit in this…..remember they are the conscious of the party!  Think about it, the CRA didn’t even offer token opposition years ago when the State Party was going to change their platform on same sex marriage.  Actually I remember seeing some CRA members, and some in leadership actively campaigning to support the platform change.  So much for being the conscious of the party, just like the national party under Bush, you decided to play nice and it cost you at the ballot box.

Same thing is happening in Southern California, the groups down there were so incensed by Janet Nguyen, Ling Ling Chang and Young Kim winning Assembly and Senate seats that they made sure that two of them did not get re-elected later.  Yes, you read that correctly, because of a couple bad votes, the CRA wouldn’t endorse Janet Nguyen or Ling Ling Chang and as a result, we lost the ability to stop tax increases and gave the other side a super majority.  And raise taxes they did, the newly elected Senator Josh Newman voted along with several Republican colleagues to raise the gas tax to fund “transportation projects” also known as the Bullet TrainOnce again the CRA took no stand against any of the seven Republicans who voted for it, likely they endorsed their re-election as well.  Because hey, we need to play nice and it’s only a few dollars extra added to fill your tank up with gas.  This is another reason the party is failing, they usually campaign and win on the issue of taxes, but if you support higher taxes and a majority of your rank-and-file go for it, is there really any difference between the parties?

California Republican Assembly sinking to the depths of oblivion

Now about the recall election of Josh Newman that took place last week.  Please don’t gloat too much CRA rank-and-file because your organization did nothing to lead this battle.  Mostly because Ling Ling Chang, there’s that name again, got elected to replace him.  The effort was led by Carl Demaio and a host of southern California radio hosts who had finally had enough of the steaming pile of B.S. being pushed by your organization.  The recall passed with 59%, you were once again on the wrong side of a result, maybe Ling Ling endorsed Trump?  I would love to hear the spin doctor try to spin this one, lol.

While you are at it, maybe have your fellow elected and endorsed Republicans explain this comment by Newman;

It saddens me, colleagues, Republican colleagues, that despite all your nice…words, not a single one of you had the integrity, the decency or the courage to stand up and say…‘this is wrong. This is an abuse of the recall process.”  URL: Recalled Democratic senator condemns GOP in defiant speech

Think about that and let it set in for a moment. This now recalled Senator is basically saying to the opposition party, you guys supported me behind the scene, how come your didn’t come out publicly?  Where are the conservatives in the party?  Where is the CRA?  Like usual, nowhere to be found.  Maybe that’s why registered Republicans are now the 3rd political preference after Democrat and Decline to State?

Lastly, maybe you should take a long hard look in the mirror regarding your so called “conservative credentials”; especially, seeing that your group almost always winds up endorsing the most liberal candidate under the guise of “only they can win the seat.”

Until next time,

X

When CALPERS Owns Your City

First some history. CALPERS (California Public Employees Retirement System) is for civil service (Union) employees at state, county and local levels; excluding teachers as they have a separate pension provider.  California also has one of the most generous pension formulas in the entire country, even with the recent changes enacted by Supreme Ayatollah Jerry Brown. (Note that the State’s pension reforms are not retroactive but only affect new hires.)

In California we have a defined benefit plan, meaning we use a calculation that comes up with an amount of money that the retiree will get monthly for the rest of their life.

Defined Contribution
In the “real world”, you might have four percent of your wages set aside in a 401K or other pension plan. Then your employer will kick in an additional amount, say two percent. Whatever you manage to squirrel away in your working years is yours to live off of in retirement. This is called defined contribution.

Defined Benefit
The amount taken from a state employee’s check has nothing to do with the amount they get in retirement. As long as a state retiree draws breath, he draws a pension.

Example. You start at 25 years old and work until 55 years old. 30 (years of service) times 2% equals 60%. You get 60% of your highest year base salary as your pension. If your highest base was 100K you now get 60K to do nothing. They usually have a cost of living increase every year as well.

URL: What does 2% @ 55 Mean?

Here is an actual table from CalPers showing how it works:
URL: CalPERS Tier 1

If you have completed 20 years of state service then government also pays your medical insurance.

FYI: State workers can also collect Social Security but in most cases teachers cannot.

Thus if you make $6K monthly, have worked for 20 years, and retire at age 55, you get $2,400 for the rest of you days. If you live to 90, that’s $1,008,000 plus medical and Social Security!

It is not uncommon for many civil servants to retire at between ages 50-55 because “they make more money retired than still working” because retirement checks can be more than net pay while working. Couple that with life expectancy which until recently is getting longer and longer and it’s no wonder that some workers are collecting pension checks for longer than their number of years worked.  The system was not designed to work this way.  Worse yet, the generation currently entering retirement years—the generation age 50 and up—are doing everything in their power to destroy future generations long after they die.  I will outline this below.

Games People Play
Gaming the overtime system, is a big part of the pension issue. This abuse is most prevalent with prison guards and public safety workers.  Between having a colleague call-in sick or not being at work because they are enjoying the generous vacation policy while feeding at the government trough, those that wish, have abundant opportunities to work overtime shifts. Some more egregious examples in recent media reports include a BART janitor sleeping in a closet while claiming he works 20 hour shifts and CalFire firefighters that claim to work several days straight when in reality they were drinking and partying it up while on duty!  No one seems to miss a chance to game the system.

Oh by the way, when a union renegotiates its contract with the state, or any other municipality, it frequently includes retroactive pay and bonuses for its members.

Other cases include: applying for the same job in a more expensive area (think the bay area or coast) to get a major salary boost for the sole purpose of juicing your pension by an extra $400 or so a month!  This is known as pension spiking.

My personal favorite, promoting a colleague who intends to retire in a couple years, but due to his accrual of 999 days of sick leave he continues “working” by calling out sick for 3 years.  Nice gig if you can get it.  This cheating is very widespread, it’s going on everywhere.  There are quite a few more stories but it sounds like there is more juicing going on in the public worker sector than in all of Major League Baseball during the 2000’s.

Pension Crisis in a Nutshell
This gets me to the meat and potatoes of this blog.  If your city, municipality, county, transportation agency, etc. belongs to CALPERS then they have to pay a set amount of money annually into the pension fund to cover the costs of their retirees.  For most of these municipalities, those costs are somewhat manageable right now, accounting for roughly 10% of their annual budgets.  Again, I said somewhat because in 2023 it will balloon to 18% of their total budgets with the increases CALPERS is charging them to participate.

This will become an even bigger issue at some point. Right now we are in a period of economic growth—even though wages aren’t growing—but what happens when we have a major recessionary event?  One that lasts several years, like during the Bush/Obama years?  My main cause for sounding the alarm now is that cities are already claiming to be strapped for funding to do even basic things like road work.  Have you seen a government entity’s pay scale?  Guess what? It’s nothing like the private sector; every single year you get an increase, with its steps and columns.  In addition to great salary, and benefits, when was the last time the government actually laid off any workers?  (Hearing crickets) In the private sector as has been detailed here and elsewhere, when your company has a bad quarter, a percentage of the workforce is terminated.

Again, we have current and future pension funding issues and the number of government workers and retirees continues to grow not shrink.  Just think about it. When President Obama or Governor Brown talked about creating jobs, it was the government sector that they were growing most.

Is There Hope
Now how to combat this issue?  Well honestly there is no attainable answer.  The problem is the unions along with local and state politicians control everything about this.  As we have chronicled before, government doesn’t even show future pension obligations on their financial statements. They only care about the current fiscal year. This is GAAP accounting for government entities. Want to change the contribution amounts for state workers?  Meet the same fate Gov. Arnold did, when his special election propositions went down in flames.  (This election is what caused Arnold to reject any pretense of Republican values.) Try to raise the contribution by the worker by just half a percent, the union and the workers will literally scream bloody murder.  If you are a Democrat politician and you try to change the rules for retiree pension plans, may God have mercy on your soul (if you are a believer) because you will most certainly be on the receiving end of several million dollars in attack ads aiding your opponent next election.

Since nothing gets done at the elected level, cities and interest groups choose to push through initiatives for sales tax increases.  These increases are packaged and pushed as “we need to hire more police” or “The District Attorney won’t prosecute low level crimes without this tax hike.”  This is baloney, because the government doesn’t follow through at all. They use a straw man argument to play to your emotions to get you to agree to a tax hike that funds legacy pension costs.  My understanding from the Blog Father is Sacramento County tried to do this with Measure B, the sales tax to fix and repair roads, it BARELY failed at the ballot box.  CRA didn’t take a stand on this by the way.  (Note: CRA contacted me via the Sith Lord and said they took offense at this remark by Mr. X and did vote to oppose Measure M. I know that CRA never submitted a ballot argument against Measure M but I did.—editor)

My point is they play to your emotion by using fear, the phone may not be answered at 911 because there won’t be any police on the streets, or your house will burn down because the firefighters won’t be able to make it to your house in time. Even trying to chip away at these pension benefits comes with a steep price.  John Chiang has been one of the most vocal in California about this, and he is barely registering a blip in the polls for governor.  The big question is, what happens when these sales tax increases don’t pass?

Last month, the Legislature actually had several chances to take a crack at mending the pension system.  The two hero legislators were John Moorloch from southern California, a Republican, and Steve Glazer from the Bay Area, a Democrat who used to work for Brown, put forth 3 different bills.  None got a hearing with the state senate committee charged with overseeing public retirement plans.  Glazer wanted a switch from the defined benefit plans to 401k plans to attract a younger work force that maybe doesn’t want to be in civil servant for life.  Moorloch wanted to slow down cost of living adjustments until CALPERS gets more solvent. Basically saying the next recession could bankrupt it.  The chair of that committee said it best, I want more people on defined benefit plans than 401k plans.  Take note, the private sector has very, very, few pension plans left.

In reality, taxes, fees, and fines (like traffic tickets) will be raised and be more plentiful due to cities needing to collect more revenue to balance budgets.  This is why your red light (Cooper Cam) violation cost $600.  It’s not because they want you to feel financial pain but they need to balance the budget.  Sales taxes can help somewhat, but tickets help the most.  We will see if Prop 13 survives this CALPERS assault on city budgets as well, I bet it won’t—especially after November.

Don’t forget that should California finally go bankrupt, the Legislature has put the union pensions first in line. As it stands now, by law, retirees will be paid in full before anyone currently working for government gets a dime of state money. I wish someone would take this pension issue to court before we get to the breaking point, as it will likely take 2 federal judges and the Supreme Court to rule this unconstitutional. But in the meantime the public pension racket in California is the union’s golden goose and is untouchable.

Hope I made you think a little,

X