CA Super Tuesday Thoughts

Thoughts?  Well, we will still be counting ballots until 4/12 or so due to our ridiculous primary and general election rules that allow mail in ballots to be accepted and counted up to a week after election day!

However, most races have been essentially “called” and I want to provide some commentary on the results and where things could head in The General out here.

The Senate Race:  Beware to all who think a “top two” primary is a smart idea.  In this republic the top two vote getters regardless of party affiliation advance to the general.  This is blatantly unconstitutional in my understanding of the laws here, but the Democrats love it, and the GOP figures it must be good since they refuse to challenge the legality of it.  You in essence had 5 “major” candidates.  Republican former LA Dodger baseball player Steve Garvey, and republican perennial candidate Eric Early.  I swear to all forms of God, I have seen Early on my ballot no less than 4 election cycles now for some office.  The Democrats had 3 major candidates, all congressmen.  Adam Schiff from LA, Katie Porter from Orange, and Barbara Lee from Oakland.  I listed the 3 in order of sanity from most sane to least.  Or, if you are a Republican operative, who I would vote for in a “top two” of just Democrats.  I understand Schiff led the impeachment of Trump but compare his voting record to Porter and Lee and he looks like a watered-down Democrat, but I digress. 

Garvey and Schiff advanced to the runoff comfortably, and both played the election correctly.  Garvey has some name ID from his time as a baseball player down south, this is huge in a state like California.  Schiff had a national profile and decided he would “take Garvey with him” to the general. 

Porter had a similar strategy it involved Eric Early.  Barbara Lee is likely still ranting about her $50 an hour wage minimum wage to an auditorium of no one except friends and family; so I will not include her in my analysis.  Schiff comes from Hollywood-Burbank LA, it’s a wealthy, mostly white part of the most populous county in California, so he had a massive built in advantage in name ID.  Porter from a similar demographic in neighboring Orange, but a much smaller voter universe.  My point is, let’s say Porter and Schiff made the runoff.  Porter is far more popular with the far left than Schiff, and as a result it’s a risk Schiff couldn’t take.  Schiff knows that a top two in November with a hated Donald Trump on the ticket will drive up the far left’s numbers and likely give the race to Porter, so he helped Garvey. 

Here is 1 of 2 glossies Schiff sent me, in essence propping up Garvey.

Since Schiff helped secure a top two finish from Garvey, he is a “shoo-in” to win the general.  Garvey also played this right, he raised 2 million (a sum that is very small, not even congressional campaign worthy) and spent about 0 since Schiff was propping his up.  Why spend money when your likely opponent will do it for you?

Katie Porter went completely unhinged after losing, so much so Troll has a blog in the chamber.

Big picture this is a good thing for Republicans in November.  We are defending a lot of marginal GOP seats, Trump will be a drag on the ticket, the absence of a Republican for Senate will destroy the ticket.  Garvey will get around 38% or so in my estimation, maybe closer to 41.  My point?  The extra turnout he draws will likely be from the LA area where we are defending the vulnerable House seats.  The extra several thousand votes could very well mean we keep a congressional majority.

Another thing worth watching, we had but 1 statewide proposition on the ballot it dealt with a bond for several billion for mental health treatment.  Out here we allow the mentally insane to roam the streets, even dodge traffic and can do nothing sense they aren’t technically breaking a law.  The proposition which Gavin Newsom campaigned for, and I believe raised over 13 million is barely passing.  50.3% to 49.7%.  Yup you read that right, still a pant load of ballots to count and anything can happen, but this may be finally a sign of Californians wising up.  We have spent trillions out here on various grifts like homelessness and affordable housing, none has worked.  We know have Democrat mayors and legislators trying to change prop 47 aka the “shoplift ‘til you drop law” to jail serial shoplifters.  These things happen when you start losing the narrative.  A Garvey win in November?  No chance, but he could set the wheels in motion of a turn around.  That proposition damn near losing when all signs point to Republicans voting late like usual could mean it fails.  A big blow to Newsom and the political elite out here.

(Please don’t take my above comments on Newsom as implying that I think the seventh recall attempt against Gavin has a snowball’s chance in hell of happening.)

A word on Trump if I may.

He is now the inevitable nominee.  It has been written how the bloggers here have soured on him.  He will be getting our votes in November, but with a jaundiced eye.  He is putting a family relative in a high-ranking post at the RNC who has been open about using the cash to pay Trump’s legal bills.  The RNC has not raised much cash at all compared to prior cycles; we are late in the cycle right now.  The cash will be needed in swing states for get out the vote operations.  We also have a slim majority in congress, and a chance to pick up seats in the senate, but with Trump who the heck knows.  I foresee a Trump presidency but a Democrat-controlled congress.  Trump will get nothing, and likely be impeached another 2-5 times just because. 

CRA motivational flyer as seen at Stop Trump call center

Trump is also scaring me on the campaign trail.  His remarks about the judge in New York, the DA in Atlanta, and the various Democrats he doesn’t like come off as dictator-like.  Frankly he comes off as a jilted former lover and having an axe to grind, but in this case the axe could very well be the DOJ and IRS, two very scary agencies to be up against.  His threats to leave NATO are somewhat scary.  Joe Biden may come off as a senile old man, but man Trump comes off as an unhinged whacko at times.  The debates could be legendary (if they are allowed) Joe could well wonder off, or fall asleep, while Trump could spontaneously combust.

The Chief