Author: The Chief

Commercial Real Estate Will Sink Biden’s “Economy”

The jobs “report” was great Friday….it really was.  We added 345,000 or so “jobs.”  Why am I using air quotes you may ask?  Well in the recent few weeks we have had layoffs from Meta (formerly Facebook), UPS, Microsoft, and Macy’s to name a few.  My understanding is Alphabet aka Google is laying off folks too.  The jobs at all of these are from management positions, not from closing stores or low-level employees.  My point here is the jobs I see opening are in the fast food, gas station, retail, and government work.  These are jobs at the very low end of the wage scale, even after factoring in California’s $20 an hour wage.  If the economy was so healthy, why have we so many homeless in these parts?  Why do they come here?

The truth is the economy is not well.  But the danger is not lurking where you think it is.  The danger is in commercial real estate and some sectors of the banking industry.  Follow along I’ll tell you.

Commercial buildings and the loans they have are the problem.  They differ from your mortgage in a few ways.  On your mortgage, you pay principle and interest every month. (I’m leaving out insurance and taxes to prove my point since they are not relevant here).  So, your outstanding balance goes down, the principle each month, maybe not by much but you are paying it off.  On commercial loans you pay interest only…yup kind of like the financial crisis circa 2008 on home loans.  You may ask what do they do when the loan comes due in 20, 30 years?  Well, they simply “recast it.” That’s a finance term for re-financing and maybe pulling out the additional equity (remember folks, real estate only goes up LOL) and buying your next shopping center. 

Truth be told, if the shopping center is about 80% capacity, the loan payments can be made each month without much issue.  Sure, you may have a pizza place, burger place, clothing store, etc. go under but they are usually easy to re-constitute the property to suit the new tenant.  The problem that arises is when the anchor tenant closes up shop.  I will use the example of a shopping center located near my office; one this blog is familiar with.  The anchor tenant is a Target store. There used to be a OSH (Orchard Supply Hardware) but it closed and was rebuilt into a Ross, Ulta!, and something else.  When that happened, the food stores located near the OSH had about 3 turn overs into something else.  No real loss because Target is the store that drives business in that center.  There used to be a Save Mart grocer, it turned into a wine store, a baby store, and a surplus type store.  A couple of those have since changed over but again, the center is pretty much full.  The issue is what happens if the Target leaves?  No chance you say.  But what if it did?  The car traffic would decrease by at least 50%.  Other food stores would close.  The boutique shops would re-locate. It will be hard to sell burgers at Smash Burger when the parking lot is empty.  The mall would be a ghost town.

If you think this scenario is a fantasy land, tin foil hat idea, check this out. 

Hilton Union Square San Francisco

Park Hotels own(ed) two very upscale hotels in San Francisco. In May, they decided to stop paying the loans and give the keys back to the lender.  Yup they walked away.  The hotels were not Motel 6 where Troll has told me you can pay by the minute or some “extended stay bull shoot” they were the Pac 55 and the Hilton Union Square.  Think tourist areas.  Combined, both hotels had about a 3,000 room capacity.  These are very nice hotels, rooms are about $250 a night at a minimum.  The parent company walked away.  These were two crown jewel hotels.  Now the lender is stuck because a hotel is not easily convertible into something else.  San Francisco will likely house their illegals or criminals there since it makes sense to make them comfortable on the taxpayer’s dime.  But I digress.

Pac 55 Hotel San Francisco

For Park Hotels, there is not much repercussion for them. They get out of a couple of underwater loans but have to give up the revenue (loss) each month of these properties.  The ones holding the bag are the banks.  You may ask why you should feel bad for a bank? They got a property, banked the interest all these years, and now they can sell it.  The reason is banks do not use a mark to market accounting rule, they value the asset based on the appraisal from when the loan was issued/refinanced.  That could be from a decade or so ago.  A good example would be the Aon Center Tower in LA.  In 2014 it was bought for 269 million, for a 1.1 million square foot building on Wilshire Blvd, an icon in LA.  In 2023, it sold for 148 million.  Over 100 million evaporated in 10 years.  Sad!  In these cases, the bank has to write off the loss on its balance sheet. 

Just this past week, New York Community Bank, a highly respected conservative bank as far as lending goes, took a major loss and had a massive write off of bad commercial loans, such as the above.  While you may not recognize the name, the regional banks will be the ones to suffer from this crisis.  The reason being, regional banks have to take more risk, their larger peers, think Bank of America, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan Chase, etc., have large credit card portfolios, deposit accounts, and home lending to fall back on.  The regional banks must take on risk, this comes with commercial loans which were typically very lucrative.  New York Community bank is not the first and will not be the last.  A tip to watch is this; when a bank fails, watch the price movement of Bitcoin, we do not endorse that here, but the price will shoot up as a hedge against the dollar/bank failures.

A word of advice “when you have a short-term loan (car loan) you are at the mercy of the bank, loan could be refused to be refinanced/underwater etc. If you have a large long-term loan (mortgage, commercial) the bank is at your mercy.” 

Good luck

The Chief

China Could Invade Taiwan….

The sounds of saber rattling you hear in the China-Taiwan part of the world is in my opinion frustration with Russia. You see, Taiwanese people are happy with the current arrangement. They are essentially an autonomous zone off the coast of China. China on the other hand views Taiwan as a breakaway province that is part of China, not separate. Xi Xinping, the leader of China, has been ratcheting up the rhetoric lately and has been using his military to scare the Taiwanese people.


What I do not understand is this. What does China really want here? Taiwan is only really known for semi-conductors, think the chip in your computer, car, etc. While this is a large booming sector of the world economy, couldn’t China just copy the IP and mass produce on the cheap? They do this with literally everything else. The US will never support that you say? Every CEO in America is looking to cut costs by even $.01 to meet or beat quarterly numbers. Trust me, China would be inundated with orders for their semi-conductors. Sure, our military will still order from Taiwan but let’s be honest, we have a hell of a lot more computers and cars than we do military items.


A military conflict seems increasingly likely, but is it necessary? The US has stated we will defend Taiwan. I would assume South Korea, Japan and the Philippines may get involved too. But is it necessary? Taiwanese people are likely ready to fight to the death, it sounds like they have the island fortified the best they can. (Far better than Ukraine ever was). They seem to have advanced military capabilities, (again better than Ukraine) as they have always figured a day will come when China will swallow them up.


If I am Taiwan, I have a plan set up, so the second Chinese war planes approach I evacuate all the engineers, scientists etc. to a safe haven. I make sure all IP, files, etc. are evacuated or destroyed as well. These are what I feel China really wants. I do not think they really want the land. I would also make sure any buildings or other structures were rigged to blow upon China encroaching. My opinion? Take the land, but it will be proven useless over time.


In my opinion, China is very angry at Russia behind the scenes. The war in Ukraine has dragged on, now it appears likely to have a long stalemate. This is not the way the plans were drawn up. The plan was to occupy the US and its allies, and while Russia marches on toward NATO borders China would take Taiwan. It didn’t happen. China is now having to assist Russia much like we are assisting Ukraine. We are now re-positioning ships and other war machines in the Pacific as a counter to China, exactly what they do not want. China is now watching Russia go to North Korea and Iran to re-stock their military and it’s been uncovered that Russia’s military is ripe with corruption.


In summation, I believe China does take Taiwan. I think the US and others essentially secure a “peace agreement by bending the knee to Xi.” It’ll be a classic US split the baby in half and hope both sides are ok with it. With the goings on in the middle East, Russia-Ukraine, and the usual unrest in Africa, I do not think the American people have the stomach for another conflict. I do not think many bullets will be fired, but as a warning to China, do not underestimate a populace who does not want to be occupied/governed by an adversary. The US never learned its lesson in the Middle East, and we lost many a service member/contractor to needless occupations. I also believe China has a very corrupt military as well. They may not be as powerful with weapons as we think. They do, however, have a large supply of bodies. The supply of bodies, also like Russia, contains hundreds of thousands if not millions of “expendable” bodies. Think slave labor types, political prisoners, ethnic minorities, opposition forces, rural areas, and you know North Korea will supply ample bodies as well. My point being China’s folks in the mainland may not even know a war is going on.

The Chief

Sean Hannity Finally Flees NY

So, it finally happened.  New York City has been home for Sean Hannity for as long as I have listened to/followed him.  He helped me get through college and parts of the Obama administration.  I enjoyed hearing him on the radio. His show typically followed Rush Limbaugh (RIP).  He always had the same monologue as Rush, and similar guests that would appear.  Sean knows his talking points and like most I know in the GOP, he rehearses them well.  Sean, in my opinion, never spoke bad of his hometown.  He even bragged about owning a hybrid Chevy Tahoe and how happy he was.  Well that all changed this week.  Check out his monologue to start his show.

The Fox News host first made the announcement on his radio show Tuesday, noting that he was “broadcasting now from my new home in the free state of Florida.”

“If anybody is listening to this program for any length of time, been threatening now to do this for quite a while, but we are now beginning our first broadcast of my new home, and that is in the free state of Florida. I am out. I am done. I’m finished. New York, New York, goodbye. Florida, Florida, if you can make it here, you can make it anywhere. But it’s great to be here,” Hannity said.

Sean Hannity announces move from New York to ‘free state of Florida’

“And finally, for the first time that I can think of in my adult life, I actually have representatives in the state that I’m living in that share my values. I have a governor by the name of Ron DeSantis and Senator Marco Rubio and Senator Rick Scott. So I’m feeling a lot better about it,” Hannity said.

He added, “And I’m not going to go through the whys, the how comes, because it’s obvious this migration out of the blue states with high taxes, burdensome regulation, high crime, horrible school districts is real. And if anything, I’m probably late and behind the curve and many others have made the move beforehand.”

I must ask the question…. ”What changed Sean?”

New York as a whole and specifically New York City are not conservative. I would even argue not close to having Republican ideals, except maybe the very sparsely populated far north up-state parts.  It hasn’t been that way for my entire adult lifetime.  Liberal policies are not new here.  It has always been a far-left cesspool.  Maybe only second to the California Bay Area. 

I honestly never remember him threatening to leave New York. To me he always seemed happy and content there.  Keep in mind he was always Fox News number 1 or 2 biggest star on both radio and television.  His shows are a ratings bonanza so Fox would have definitely paid top money to keep him around.  Why would he stay in New York?  Again, I will mention he bought the hybrid Tahoe.  If it was so bad, I think he could afford to pack up and move anytime.  Again, he has a very highly rated national radio program, and a huge TV following. 

Regarding his last paragraph about a blue state exodus, this has been going on for years. Heck Limbaugh left New York over two decades before. My question is this, what states are really getting redder?  Texas, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado have trended away from the GOP, not towards it.  (This is thanks in large part to California immigrants that think they are conservative but are not changing the demographics of these states.) My point is who is leaving these blue states?  His comments about crime are fine, but has Sean been made aware of Tallahassee and Miami?  Sure, the schools will be better than New York but who cares? Hannity’s children are adults. One has graduated college and the other will shortly. Has he studied the insurance crisis in Florida?  It is much the same as in California but due to hurricanes not wildfires. My point is, sometimes you trade one set of problems for another.  Burdensome regulation isn’t just in blue states.  Again, Sean does a good job staying on the talking points script of taxes, regulations, crime, bad schools, and freedom. 

His last comments about being late to the party sum up his entire existence in my opinion.  Sean strikes me as the type who infests the CA GOP and CRA.  They love to speak about how conservative they are, espouse conservative ideals, yet in every single election these folks pick the most liberal Republican candidate.  McCain, Romney, even the folks backing Jeb Bush, it’s crazy.  He was even worse on the Speaker of the House for the GOP over the years.  He loved John Boehner, Paul Ryan, and fawned all over Kevin McCarthy.  All three have something in common, they love regurgitating talking points just like Sean does.  I know no one who shares the views of any of those 3. None are conservative.  They all sum up the GOP in a way Sean loves, get elected, then re-elected, go on talk shows and tell folks how conservative you are, then after being re-elected again, tell us how we must work with the other side.  Lather, rinse, repeat.  Folks like Sean Hannity love this playbook.

Hannity is in trouble because he is alone.  Rush Limbaugh died.  Fox ratings are way down.  McCarthy was ousted as Speaker, and it appears the GOP found a real conservative to replace him.  So, to stay relevant he moved to Florida. Oh, by the way, Hannity has owned the Florida house since 2018 and split from his wife in 2020. Seems this move is about more than crime and high taxes.

It’s sad to watch but Hannity is just a microcosm of the GOP’s branding issues.  This move reeks of desperation to stay in the news.  Maybe it took years of liberal GOP and leftist Democrats ruling the roost to get this to occur or perhaps all his bravado is a smokescreen for more personal reasons.

The Chief

Liberalism 101 Minimum Wage Hikes = Prosperity

The minimum wage for fast food workers in California will increase on April 1st, 2024.  Since most of the blog staff live out here, we witnessed the masses cheering this revelation on.  They will finally be able to get their own apartments, buy nicer things, and not have the massive credit card/overdraft debt.  While this sounded great, the joke was on the workers once again.  Yesterday the big news out of southern California was several major Pizza Hut chains fired all their delivery drivers.  Yup, every single driver at these franchised stores got a nice New Year’s gift.

Rather than pay delivery drivers $20 an hour — under a new California law set to go into effect in April 1, 2024 — Pizza Hut franchisees in Sacramento and elsewhere in the state are laying them all off.

The franchisees, one of which operates restaurants in the Sacramento area, are letting go more than 1,200 delivery drivers across the state, according to Business Insider, which reviewed a federal Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act document filed with the state Employment Development Department.

Pizza Huts in California, including Sacramento, laying off drivers rather than pay $20 minimum wage

So, are the stores going to be takeout only?  I don’t think so, pizza is synonymous with a delivery driver, so they will all likely be contracting through Uber Eats, Door Dash or Grub hub.  In all three cases they will not be fast food employees and as such not subject to the $20 an hour wage. 

This is the problem with liberal, hive mind, groupthink.  Let’s give everyone a raise and all will be well in the world, folks will not be in poverty.  It is going to have the opposite effect.  These workers laid off will be making a low wage, plus a possibility of a tip as a delivery driver for a third-party company.  They will be responsible for the wear and tear, insurance, and gas, while hoping for tips to balance it out.  More on this in a moment.

The prices will increase, so sticking with Pizza Hut; your $12 pizza will now be $17.  This makes you less likely to tip your delivery driver, who as pointed out above won’t be partaking in the increase in wages.  Sticking with this theme, do you think the franchisee will eat the increased costs?  No chance.  There will be a headcount reduction in workers as well.  What may take 4 to cover a dinner shift, will likely be reduced to three.  There will be increased ordering off an app or self-serve kiosk, as this will help reduce head count as well.  No one needing to work the till means a savings.

The price increases elsewhere will more than offset the increase in the minimum wage.  Folks a sandwich I got at Jersey Mikes today is listed on the menu board for $11.85, this is prior to any real minimum wage effect on the sub.  There will be increased costs at gas stations, grocery stores, and you better bet rent will be going up.  The rising tide doesn’t lift the boats, it just shows which ones are taking on water.

Some of the employees in the store will be flushed out of society.  It’s sad but inside you know it’s true as well.  At the local Burger King I visit when I make bad life decisions, like forgetting lunch at work, the majority of the employees appear to not give a rip.  No chance those folks are kept around making $20 an hour, along with the increased menu prices.  The consumer will demand more, and the franchisee will expect it.  Those in this group will be part of the unemployable class.  Same goes for folks who didn’t finish high school, you will be deemed not worth the cost of employability.  Looking to make some extra cash over the summer or winter during your school break?  Not going to happen, as the cost of onboarding and off boarding you will be too much.

The cold-hearted truth is these positions were created for high school and college aged kids, a resume builder for someone who didn’t want to go to college, criminals exiting the “system” and folks who may be a little on the spectrum.  Those people will now have no chance.  Wait and watch as this will raise wages at all other jobs too; the health club, the spa, the grocer, the gas station.  Again, the workers at the lowest level will be frozen out.

This is called Liberalism 101.  Do the thing that feels good, ignore any chance it could backfire and when it does, double and triple down hoping for a different outcome.

It’s a nice sentiment, but wow, they didn’t foresee the consequences.

The Chief

68 Billion Reasons Gavin Newsom is in Trouble

68 billion, yes with a “b” that is California’s projected budget shortfall for next fiscal year.  That is a big problem for our governor.  To give you an idea of just how bad it is, our entire rainy-day fund will only cover about 2/3 of the shortfall.  So draconian cuts will be needed/required.  Unlike the federal budget, the state must balance its budget.  True, they can and do use voodoo accounting tricks, but you can only do that for so long.  One trick CA used once was to pay their employees on July 1st rather than June 30th , the last day of the fiscal year, essentially pushing the payment forward a year.

Then came the Covid 19 windfall money.  The federal government gave lots of cash to support state and local governments affected by the shutdown and as a result, because flush with cash.  Folks also got stir crazy and decided to re-do their landscaping or the interior/exterior of their dwellings.  The Home Depot, Green Acre’s, Lowe’s, and Costco had lines miles long each day, let alone on weekends. 

While this was great, as usual, the government thought it would never stop.  It did.

CA you see has had a steady stream of people leaving it for decades.  Ditto with corporations and small business closing.  Elon Musk, who most would think would be revered and welcomed in CA was essentially run off. 

Now some will point out that we added jobs in California for so many years, even during the Trump administration…. they are correct.  But there is a caveat.  Most of those jobs were retail, minimum wage type jobs, or government ones.  The former don’t really help as minimum wage employees don’t provide much stimulation for the economy, as most are on a form of assistance or not a head of household earner.  The latter are an outflow of government monies and come with high unfunded costs like pension commitments and healthcare.

So how do we cut the 68 billion?  It’s not easy at all.  Gavin is going to be unpopular.

How can you cut electric vehicle subsidies/incentives when we are outlawing cars with internal combustion engines soon?  Ditto on cutting incentives/subsidies for solar systems on your roof.  Want to put off maintaining the roads? A judge may have something to say about that as gas tax is collected specifically for that.  Even eliminating all the incentives above, its likely only several hundred million, we need 68 billion… again with a “b”.

Uncle Joe Biden may want to try to help, but if there is one thing that is bipartisan in Congress, bailing out crazy California in a budget bind isn’t one of them!  Halting the high-speed rail is off the table since we have spent 15 years buying up land and suing every owner who dragged their feet.  The delta tunnels?  Ditto, off the table.

Closing down a government office building?  Unless you are planning to turn it into a homeless housing unit, that ain’t happening.  If you are in a lease, you owe the money, it’s just like a utility bill or rent payment.  Just because you didn’t turn it on or were on vacation all month doesn’t mean you skip the payment.

That brings us to the big cost cutting that needs to happen.  The reduction of pension/payrolls.  P and P as I call them likely takes up 70% of the budget, the pension is the golden goose, and you cannot cut that.  So, it comes down to cutting bodies.  Terminations are not really a government thing, layoffs aren’t either.  The way the contracts are negotiated, furloughs may be the only option.  I remember the Friday furloughs put in place under Governor Arnold were heavily criticized but found to be legal. Also, the State doesn’t cut management. They may keep some positions unfilled for a time but ultimately, they will cut entry level positions (the lowest paying ones) and just add more to the next rung up the ladder.

Also, keep in mind that a balanced budget is required by the State Constitution, but the reality is that the governor and legislature just need to agree to call it “balanced.” In reality the math doesn’t really have to work as long as both sides agree to the smoke and mirrors employed. Look for much to be papered over or pushed into future years. Also, special funds will be looted and their contents diverted to the General Fund in exchange for IOU’s.

Barring some kind of miracle that allows Gavin to run for President and thus avoid this nightmare, he is looking at being one of the most unpopular governors in the country when he starts making tough decisions.  The furloughs were hell on wheels for Arnold, will Gavin bring them back?  Will he cut back on programs? If so, which ones? CA is the liberal mecca for green energy spending, try to put the brakes on that?

The man in the 68-billion-dollar hole is coming for you. 

Not going to be fun…

The Chief

Beat Trump Legitimately and He will have to go away

It’s easy to say, harder for the Democrats to do.

Honestly, the thing I remember most about Trump is not a slogan, a hat, or clichés.  He made a big deal out of being treated fairly.  He demanded it.  He skipped a debate when first running because he said he wasn’t being treated fairly.  He did not do interviews on certain networks or shows and claimed the same.  Back when I had cable (before the Blog Father straightened me out) I remember Trump telling Bill O’Reilly that he wasn’t treating him fairly.  On Fox no less!

Voter fraud was his thing… and he was very vocal during Covid.

How do you beat him legitimately?  Easy.

Stop sending a ballot to every Tom, Dick, Harry, and everyone else.  Yes, even in liberal mecca California you used to have to request a mail in ballot.  Have voting centers open for dropping the ballot off.  The local library, heck even the local watering hole may have had a drop off box for ballots last election.  In California (and elsewhere) ballots are also sent to each person who wants one, even if you have died or move away.  When I bought my house, the ex-owners got ballots for 3 years.  Even when presented with proof of out of state registration (wife) or a death certificate (husband), the county registrar’s office didn’t care. Literally voter fraud is supported in Sacramento County. 

My point?  Quit this process.

Count all ballots on election night.  None of this California bullshit of counting ballots for a good month plus after the election.  (The truth is that in many areas, all ballots are not counted.) No broken pipes, no leaving for the day and coming back tomorrow.  Bring in temporary workers, I could care less.  Make sure the water main doesn’t “break” or have the webcam be “down.”  Do vote count updates in real time.  We need to know the winner by midnight in California.

Vote in person or request a ballot via mail.  Require ballots to be returned by a certain date.  A webcam should be live streaming the vote counting process.  Count them all that night.  No breaks, pauses or anything.  This removes Trumps biggest card of fraud and not being treated fairly.  Trust me, do what I suggest and the conspiracy folks will have nothing to shout about.  Beat him fairly, like I laid out, and there will be no insurrection, stealing, cheating, or anything else.  If he tries to pull that card, he and his supporters will be laughed at.

The Chief

Colorado Ignores the Rule of Law Re: Trump

Series of quick blogs coming, likely will not be able to be posted in time, due to Blog Father’s well-deserved vacation.

So yesterday the State of Colorado’s Supreme Court ruled 4-3 that Donald Trump will not appear on the 2024 ballot for President in Colorado.  This is a wild case of judicial misuse.  Keep in mind all 7 judges are Democrat appointee’s so this isn’t a case of the “right” or “left” wing stacking a court, which Democrats love to pull. 

Please note this from the dissenting opinion, “I have been involved in the justice system for thirty-three years now, and what took place here doesn’t resemble anything I’ve seen in a courtroom.”

Translation: the Democrats will rue this day.

The truth here is Donald Trump has virtually no chance of winning in Colorado against any Democrat.  Why is the heck would the Democrats waste their capital on this?  It is pointless, they will now have to spend more time and attention to defending this practice, as it will be appealed to the US Supreme Court.

Again, just to point out, 7 judges–all Democrat appointees–basically split on this one.  4-3.  Again, it was a 4-3 decision.  In a state where Trump will not win.

In today’s news it appears CA Secretary of State Shirley Weber wants to do the same thing.  Our Attorney General and fellow brainless Democrat Rob Bonta appears ready to defend it all the way to the US Supreme Court.  Again, in a state Trump will not and cannot win to begin with.  Word has it at the press conference, Weber had to read off very large Kindergarten style cue cards and Rob Bonta immediately excused himself to the gender neutral (neutered?) bathroom to change his panties as the excitement from blocking a white male from a top job became too much for his body to handle.

Now for serious commentary.

Folk’s this is patently illegal.  It will not take much but this will be overturned.  Actually, I would not be stunned if the Supreme Court went 8-1 on this.  It sets a very dangerous precedent.  Think about it, what if a red state governor comes out and says, “Biden has had too many slips and falls, incoherent moments, etc. and by the power invested in me, he is henceforth banned from a ballot?”  “Or a blue state governor says we cannot allow candidate ____ or ____ on the ballot because they are hostile to; trans, LBGTQ, business, abortion, churches, etc.?”  This would be opening Pandora’s box like never before. 

Is this the type of world we want to live in?  A hyper-partisan society where a sole and single leader aka a dictator or ruling family decides who can and cannot run?

Here is a novel concept…let Donald Trump run.  He won’t win either state, not even a meteor killing all Democrats and decline to states as the dead vote in far bigger numbers for the Democrat than the Republican.  He won’t win there. 

Donald is a very flawed person, and a flawed candidate.  Regardless of your thoughts on stolen elections, the January 6th thing was not a pretty sight.  Donald is a polarizing figure as we have pointed out here, even against a very bad Joe Biden, Trump is up just a few points.  Let the election play out and you may just beat Trump twice! 

While folks like William and the staff here have soured on Trump, imagine the rank and file?  However, when Democrats pull this crap on Trump, they are saying that we are next. Trump is cast once again as an outsider and a threat to the Elites. This causes us to rally around Trump. Were they to ignore Trump during the last three years, DeSantis would be leading the pack by 30 points.

To the Democrats who think this extra-legal political persecution is a good idea:  Think about groups who get upset when they are excluded from things for no reason.  Black People, Asian people, Hispanic people, Jews, Palestinians are some that quickly come to mind.  They do not like being excluded, restricted, charged with crimes, perp walked, mug shotted, etc. yet you are doing this very thing.  Trump would likely be getting molly-whopped in the primary, yet you continue to indict and convict without even a trial!  I have a feeling if someone actually could break down the polling for Trump, he is going to get a record high number of “non-white” groups for a Republican.  I doubt many of the above-mentioned groups feel like Trump is getting a fair shake.

Watch Trumps’s poll numbers next week.  I bet he picks up another 2-4% lead on Biden in the polls. 

Again, if you hate Trump, let the election play out and should he prevail then beat him in the General Election fair and square. The fact is Democrats can’t trust voters to agree with them and thus must deploy every dirty trick and political gambit they can think of.

FYI: I feel the same about rumblings in Texas that Biden should not be allowed on the ballot due to his failure to fix the border.  Knock it off.

This is so funny because when I was in school, I remember the USA and allies calling rigged elections out in North Korea, Russia, China, and various South American, and African nations for doing this same thing.  Now that we are a third-world country, I guess it’s, ok?  Wow.  That’s something.

The Chief

The Democrat Conundrum for 2024

We have blogged about how both Joe Biden and Donald Trump can win next year in the election, but we haven’t spoken about the elephant in the room.  The elephant is the Democrat machine.  The machine knows Joe Biden is too old and is definitely in cognitive decline.  Congressman Dean Phillips of Minnesota and Senator John Fetterman have both made comments about this very thing.  Phillips is an obscure congressperson who announced a primary run against an incumbent, which is a big no-no in either party.  Fetterman who had a stroke during his run for Senate last year has said Gavin Newsom is running a shadow campaign for president.  Folk’s comments like those don’t just come out unless there are legs to them. 

So how do they remove Joe from the ticket you may ask?

Easy, at the nominating convention for their party.  The delegates basically can pick the nominee, and just have a majority not vote in his favor.  You may remember Bernie did this last go round, taking his delegates all the way to the convention, even though he had zero chance of the nomination being his.  I fully believe this is why that Phillips guy is running, just to carry a name to the nominating convention.  I also do not think RFK will be on the general election ballot as an independent, I can’t put my finger on it, but I just don’t see a Kennedy not on the Democrat line. 

Simply said, Joe has major health and mental health concerns, and this blog feels the Democrats are waiting for an error similar to the dreaded “blue screen of death” Windows users fear their computer contracting.  For those reasons we feel Joe will not be the nominee.

Here is the bigger problem.

If not Joe, what do the Democrats do with Kamala Harris?  Democrats have always thrown the black person overboard when necessary, but in this case it is different.  Harris is the sitting Vice President.  She and Gavin do not like one another.  They will not be on the same ticket. Two folks from California is a liability not an asset for the Democrats.  This is what creates the issue.  Kamala was a Senator; however, she will not “path back” to the Senate. First, it’s a demotion, and second, she will look weak trying to get her old seat back.  (BTW her old Senate seat currently has a primary with 3 sitting Democrat congressmen in it, making it no sure thing).  Removing Harris is very risky, as throwing a black woman under the political bus will be viewed in a bad light by the black community.  BLM would be outraged, and we have seen what happens when they riot.  For those who say let Kamal be governor, again there is a problem.  That requires Gavin winning the presidency, which is no sure thing, even against Donald Trump.  Also, there is a primary forming for that position as Gavin terms out in 2026.  (In heavy red and blue states there is a pecking order, and folks get very nasty when you mess up the rotation).  Again, it’s no shoe-in for Kamala.

Kamala doesn’t seem like the type to go quietly into the night when she doesn’t get her way.  It will get ugly.

Let’s say Joe bows out, and Gavin takes over.  Who is the VP?  Can’t pick a white person in that party, not to replace a black woman.  Michele “my belle” Obama doesn’t seem to want the job, and I think Barack wants to just hit the speaker circuit, he seems out on politics.  Al Sharpton has too much blood on his hands, so he is out.  I think there are 2 logical choices, there are 2 Castro brothers from Texas, either would be safe choices, the other being Xavier Beccera.  I am contradicting myself with Beccera as he is a Californian, but if you can read between the lines, you wind up throwing a bone to the Hispanic voters.  Democrats love racist dog whistles and here is another chance to play the “Trump is a racist” card.  Hispanic people outnumber black people about 4-1 (not counting new residents that arrived over the southern border) so any votes lost in the black community are likely more than accounted for moving forward.

It may seem like tin foil hat thinking, but it could work for the Democrats.

They needed Joe in 2020 to beat Trump.  There was no way; Bernie, Mayor Booty judge, or any of those other clowns out that stage was beating Trump last go round.  They knew it and rigged it.  Now that Joe is a liability, looking worse and worse with each speech or appearance, he makes it high time for him to go.  Need more proof?  David Axelrod (Obama campaign manager) and James Carville (Clinton campaign) are both saying Joe cannot win. Regardless of your thoughts about those two, they are very savvy and smart.

Need more proof?  A Fox News article recently advised Joe to “Throw his son Hunter under the bus to save his campaign.”  Folks, a father throwing a family member under the bus is a bad look, even in this case.

Still not convinced?  Why did Newsom vs DeSantis debate happen in Georgia?  Also why was it on Fox and moderated by Sean Hannity?  DeSantis looks like yesterday’s news and Gavin isn’t running so why have this?  Answer…. if Gavin looks good, Joe will be taking a tumble down the stairs, either on his own or someone will be pushing him.

For the Democrats the stakes are too high.

LBGQ ≠ T

One thing I will never understand about the LGBTQ community no matter how many times its explained: why do they accept the Trans community?  Think about it. If you are gay, lesbian, bi-sexual, or queer those are human sexuality/lifestyle choices.  I dated a girl, and after we had broken up, she decided she liked both girls and boys, so she became bi-sexual. (Note to the weirdos out here: I understand it meant she discovered her sexuality but still my point stands.)  I also know a friend who decided she was only into girls (lesbian) after seeing a movie where Jennifer Aniston got completely naked.  (Contributors to this blog have a much different reaction to seeing Jennifer in the buff.)

Friends of our family have gotten divorced and decided they too preferred same sex relationships as opposed to traditional relationships.  In all of these cases while it was not always taboo, most forget we banned gay marriage as a state in 2008; nevertheless, acceptance has become far more prevalent today. 

I understand full well why those groups are all accepted into the LGBQ crowds, it’s a matter of sexual preference.  Note: many at the blog have lifestyle issues with these folks, but do not see them as disruptive to civilized society.  The Nine in Black Robes made it the law of the land and we chose to accept it.  No hate is needed here.

However, one group who in my opinion pigeonholed themselves into that crew who is doing heavy damage to our society: The transgender crowd.

Trans folks have a very different set of circumstances than the rest of the rainbow crowd.  This is not about sexual preference or attraction, this is about making yourself into a real-life science project, one where undoing it may be impossible.

In the case of the folks that I mentioned above that changed their sexual identity or attraction, their circumstances were different; however, trans folks are cut from a much different cloth.  No one I know who is LBGQ has openly advocated for folks coming out who are not in fact LBGQ.  The “T” crowd is doing exactly that.  Bruce “Caitlyn” Jenner started all of this, and Fox News gave it a place to spew their filth unchecked.  It has since taken off like wildfire.  The trust the science crowd from Covid fame are just as guilty here.

Folks who become transgendered are mutilating God’s creation. If you refuse to believe in God, fine… your birth parents can get credit for your creation.  As a baby develops, its body creates its own chemicals and biological functions based on genetic information programmed into its very being at conception.  Adding care, nutrition, and time will follow the genetic code. Gender is determined for you before you are ever born. In what crude world would someone try to stop testosterone or estrogen from being created?  Or worse yet, chemically reverse it?  These are the questions no one is asking this crowd.  I’m sorry but having someone put a dress on or a halter top does not make them a girl.  Like I said this is nothing but a science project.

I’ll back up a minute.

Say a young boy decides, likely via his “friends,” that he is really a girl.  Perhaps he buys some sex toys, follows some unorthodox people on Instagram or Only Fans, and is stunned at how dirty old men/perverted women will “pay/tip” to watch a show.  Soon he goes deeper down the rabbit hole and starts buying girl’s clothing.  He buys a wig, and heels and now he has a full-on persona of a female.  There is still a problem, He is not satisfied with mere cosplay. His body knows he is a boy, even if he has a problem with that mentally and/or emotionally. Somewhere in all this confusion, he still feels he is not good enough. He is convinced by others that taking chemicals to alter his body into thinking it’s a girl will fill the emptiness inside. He gets a prescription from a local baby killing factory for hormone blockers. His body will now begin to grow female organs and he will be having the male ones diminished, suppressed via chemicals, or outright removed.  To further the change, he legally changes his name.  Now the transformation is basically complete even if there are a few details to iron out.

Now you let me ask you this.  Say this person who was in high school/college during this period gets closer to 40.  All his friends are married or seriously dating someone else, whether the same gender or opposite.  “She” now realizes that this gender switch isn’t what he thought it would be. Most of us have something that we did in our youth that we regret but very few of us pay as high a price as this unfortunate soul. Depending on the level of self-mutilation, there may not be any path to return to your former state. It’s too late.  The science likely won’t be available and if it is, likely won’t be covered for free like the initial change was.  The devastation will be so much, they likely will kill themselves.  Look it up, stats don’t lie, and suicide among this crowd is far higher than any other group…. by far.

Congrats to the crowd who is pushing this science project on families across the USA.  The devastation from this will be felt for generations to come.  It’s not science, its mutilation thru manipulation, we used to try to bring awareness to this in Africa, now we accept it.

I feel at some point, the LBGQ group will wise up and get this crowd out of their inner circle.

One of those things isn’t like the others. 

The Chief

How Joe Biden Can Win in 2024

Can Joe Biden win re-election?  Absolutely he can.  It will not be easy, and won’t be fun, but he absolutely can.  I will explain how.

Do everything possible to not have in person debates: 

This is easy, have one of Biden’s inner circle get Covid just before the debate.  This allows the debate to be remote and allows Biden to have his handlers hold up cue cards or the like to help him navigate the debate.  I know this sounds harsh for ole Joe, but he is very obviously in declining health, so much so even his fellow Dems are saying he should step aside.  It only takes one slip up (answering the wrong question, rambling, telling odd stories, staring into the abyss or wondering off set) to erode his support for good.  The perception of being too old won’t sink him, reality will, and his handlers know this.

Make the election about Donald Trump:

Simply put Joe doesn’t have much to run on; the economy is teetering; layoffs are being considered/happening and globally some think WW3 could happen any day.  As a result, he must make it all about Trump.  Insurrection, wanting to overturn an election, and the general chaos that is Trump needs to be front and center all the time.  Remember this folks, Trump is to Democrats what the Clinton’s are to the GOP, essentially the anti-Christ.  The mention of Trump will drive Democrat turnout. 

Make the 3rd party candidates, 3rd party candidates: 

Simply put, RFK cannot be getting anywhere near 17% in the general.  No way.  If he does, Trump will have a really great night.  Every vote for Jill Stein, RFK, or Cornell West is a vote taken from Joe Biden.  Joe must shore up this flank and knock the support for each to around 1-3% RFK included.  Note:  neither William or any of the blog staff see a candidate getting 17% who isn’t a major party one.  We see RFK topping at around 5-7% nationwide on election night.

Point out Trump is in no-man’s land: 

Each time Trump comes out with an idea I would immediately question how it would get done.  Simply put, his Party doesn’t like him.  Most in our opinion wanted him to never get elected so they could “own the issue” not the solution…. Healthcare ring a bell?  Trump will be a lame duck, and quite frankly will likely have very small majorities/minorities in both Houses of Congress.  He will need to “twist the arms” of his own just to try to shepherd legislation through.  If the Democrats win the House, I would say more impeachment inquiries will happen.  I would be pointing out constantly that Trump has no support from his own Party, and tepid at best support from moderate Democrats.  We do not know who his VP pick will be, and frankly he pretty much fired his entire cabinet at one point in time or another during this first term.

So, there you kind of have it.  Biden can absolutely win; it may not be easy or fun.  However, I will tease my next blog…. I do not think Joe Biden or Kamala Harris will be on the ticket.

The Chief