Note: The Chief sent me this post midafternoon yesterday but I didn’t have a chance to get this posted until the following day. — Editor
I wrote this past Friday that the Democrats have a Bernie problem. The problem isn’t so much his electability it’s the down ticket that matters. Bernie is popular in some core constituencies but deeply unpopular in others. The Democrats realized that and I have to give them credit for heeding my warnings. After Hidin’ Biden won big in South Carolina, his only decent showing to date, Tom Steyer dropped out. The following day Mayor Pete decided to drop out, and the “Klob-Butcher” dropped out and flew to Texas Monday to appear with and endorse “Hidin’ Biden.”
My initial reaction was that was odd, as Mayor Pete had actually shown quite well leading up to South Carolina, and had been tied with Bernie in the delegate race! The Klob-Butcher was actually starting to gain traction and the more friendly mid-western states were up next…so I was equally shocked by this. Just seemed like a lot of unnecessary dominoes fell instantly, almost like this thing is being rigged again?
Here is my hypothesis, somebody likely a Clinton appointee showed the DNC Bernie’s polling numbers in areas outside of academia and spooked the entire party. I’m sure campaign debt was paid off (also an opinion shared by the Blog Father) and suddenly…..wham Mayor Pete and Amy jump on the Biden campaign. I say suddenly because when you run for president, your campaign has rallies planned all over the place, on a given day you may visit 3 different states all in different time zones. I find it hard to believe these 2 just folded up the circus tents and jumped on Biden. Additionally I am not surprised on Steyer dropping out, he had a Jeb! One state strategy and it horribly backfired, as of writing I do not believe he has endorsed, only saying they need to beat Trump. Bloomberg I expect drops out after tonight, pending a bigger showing than I think. That would leave Biden, Bernie and Warren, the latter being key to rigging the election.
In essence, Warren and Sanders are competing for the same 40% or so of voters, if you believe like we do that if one dropped out, the supporters would vote for the other, as on policy neither differs that much. Warren needs to stay in, and likely got a promise to wipe out her campaign debt after she drops out. This sets up Biden to try to capture Bernie’s share + “x” and beat Bernie, in every state that remains, and allow him to pick up more delegates. Think back to 2016, Trump always got his 30-34% of the vote in each state, with Cruz and Kasich flopping 2nd and 3rd place finishes allowing Trump to continue winning states and an increasing delegate lead. Neither candidate would drop out, and eventually Trump got enough delegates to earn the nomination.
Here we are today, the eve of the “Super Tuesday” election primary and it’s going to get wild tonight. I say that because millions of folks have already voted, and the votes cannot be changed. Look for some wild finishes tonight, remember if a candidate gets above 15% they win delegates even if no longer in the race. Amy could well win Minnesota, Pete should do well in the mid-west states. Bloomberg is an absolute wild card in all of this, if he does well and presses on, it will be a brokered convention. The key is he needs to drop out ASAP and get behind Biden, because again, more and more states vote in the next few weeks, and his name is still on the ballot! Bernie is very aware this is happening, actually he is one of the most self-aware candidates remaining. He knows he has to ramp it up, and look for him to attack Biden big on the stump, as he knows Biden’s voters are not “hard support” like he enjoys from his voters. The key tonight is to watch Warren, if she drops out, Bernie’s chances of winning go exponentially higher, if she does not, Bernie knows this thing is rigged again, just like the last one.
My only words of advice: be very careful with Bernie’s supporters, the worst look possible is a smoke filled convention, with Bernie leading his folks out like the Pied Piper. If this plays out the way I think it will, Bloomberg, Biden, and Bernie in a smoke filled room, Biden will get routed at the polls and the Democrats could be looking at a super minority. Bloomberg can only buy off so many people.
Editor’s Note: I agree with Chief that it is unusual for so many people to drop out of the race the day before Super Tuesday. These folks have campaigned for almost two years to get to this point in the election—remember there were once 24 candidates in the field—and now the day before the Olympics of politics they all drop out??? What happened to the brokered convention? Clearly somebody connected with Clinton or Obama organizations dropped a dime on the candidates in the race. Also, if Biden is so great for blacks, why is it that no black candidates were part of the last minute endorsement or campaign blitz? Where are Harris, Booker, etc.?