The Supreme Court ruling that struck down unions from requiring non-members to pay dues as a condition of employment is bigger than most people realize. Folks, the Court threw a thermonuclear grenade into the status quo political arrangement.
I’m going to tie three different threads together as we discuss this issue. As the adage goes, “Follow the money.”
First, the amount of money collected in dues just in the State of California is staggeringly large. I knew that combined the California Teachers Association (CTA) and Service Employees Union International (SEIU) collected about $625 million during each two year election cycle but today I learned this is peanuts.
Based primarily on publicly disclosed 2016 form 990s along with information obtained from their individual websites, in aggregate, California’s major public sector unions are estimated to be collecting over $900 million per year.
Because there are undoubtedly smaller and less visible public sector unions operating in California, this number may be conservative. The number is also possibly understated because when making assumptions, conservative estimates were always applied. This was the done when estimating average membership dues in nearly all cases, and also with respect to total membership.
Yeah, you read that right, 900 million dollars a year is the conservative estimate. And as of now they get zero dollars unless they can convince people to join. Now multiply these numbers all across the other states and the Democrats just lost the gravy train. They and their financial backers have lost billions of dollars. Folks, they will not get all these people back on the union rolls; ever.
The implications for the political environment are huge. The most immediate result will be the congressional elections in November; especially the Senate. Democrats have to defend ten seats in states where Trump won. Without funding, their job just to keep these seats let alone gain anything has become all but impossible. Democrats will have to spend all their cash to keep from losing more seats in the Senate. Becoming the majority is almost mathematically impossible. Furthermore, once the elections are over, they and their special interests will be out of cash.
Against this background, take a look at the Supreme Court. The urgency of the smear campaign against the nominee now comes into sharper focus. It doesn’t matter who Trump put up, they have to oppose him. Again, it takes vast amounts of cash to run this campaign against Brett Kavanaugh. Again, this cash cannot be easily replaced.
Following the November election, Republicans will likely gain a few seats in the Senate.
Fox Business even agrees with me on this assertion. This from Stuart Varney:
Is it possible? A red wave coming, to the Senate? The Republicans pick up seats, increase their majority?
It’s possible, and because of Judge Kavanaugh, it’s probable!
And this is where things get really interesting.
Justice Ginsburg is at the end of her time both on the Court and on this planet. She’s 85 and in poor health. If Democrats had any strategic thinkers on their team, they would have replaced Ginsburg while Obama was President. This would have assured a young Liberal on the court for the next 30 years or so. But they were so cocksure that Hillary Clinton would win that this never happened. This theme has been voiced twice in the last few days. First by Liz Peek on Fox and then by Rush Limbaugh.
If Republicans can pick up two or three seats in the Senate, Trump can appoint a full throated conservative to the Court that everyone knows will vote to overturn Roe v Wade and there will not be a damned thing that Susan Collins and her fellow pro-abortion Republicans can do about it. Look for a female Catholic to be nominated to replace Ginsburg.
Oh, this also explains the logic of putting up Brett Kavanaugh to replace Kennedy.