So, we, out here in the People’s Republic of California, are picking a new Governor this November. Governor Newsom is running for President and can’t wait to vacate the Capital!
This is where things get whacky. There are like 9 serious Democrats running for the job! Contrast that to the Republican side where there are 2 serious candidates. You are probably wondering why that is a concern. Well, in California, it’s the top two finishers that move on regardless of Party. So yes, Republicans have a chance to do the funniest thing!
While it is highly unlikely, if the Republicans were to take the top two slots, big change for the better would come to California. Democrats would likely repeal that law, and elections would go back to the way they were when this State was actually competitive. This would actually be a very good thing. Traditionally, in certain parts of California, third parties like; Green, Libertarian, and Peace and Freedom, can get a few percent of the total, meaning that they could play spoiler. Back to the Governor’s race!
In order to accomplish that feat, the Republicans would have to almost evenly split the roughly 34-37% of the vote. That is likely the size of the vote for a Republican candidate in the primary. If Sheriff Bianco and Steve Hilton can pull that feat off, they likely will be advancing to the General.
Here is why.
Democrats have a mess on their side, a big one.
They have 2 congressmen (1 former) from the Los Angeles area running; Katie Porter and Eric Swallwell. Both are known to the voters: as Porter ran for Senate 2 years ago. Xavier Becerra is a former Attorney General and he will get a few percent as well. Tom Steyer is a billionaire who is spending a lot of money and running a lot of ads. He will also get several percent of the vote. Matt Mahan is the Mayor of San Jose who is kind of a populist, he will also garner a few percent. Tony Thurmond, and Betty Yee were both elected statewide a few times, again they will register a couple percent. Antonio Villaragosa is the former LA mayor; he could get a couple percent as well. Problem for the Democrats is all of those 8 names are going to split up the vote, and it could lock them out of the top two.
Polling has been scarce, but it appears Steve Hilton (former Fox News Host) is leading the entire field with some combination of Swalwell, Porter, and Steyer a few points behind, and Sheriff Bianco in that mix as well. One has to wonder, when will the knives come out on both sides. Let’s be real for a minute here. There is zero chance of a Republican being elected Governor, zero; unless both Republican candidates make the top 2. At what point, if you are advising Swalwell, Porter, or Steyer do you say, “rip the gloves off and go scorched earth on each other?” The goal being get yourself and a Republican into the top two and voila you win. One thing for sure, it’s a very fluid race, and will change a bunch over the next few months. Steyer’s ads will show his support rising; however, he is all in on the billionaire tax, quite a few Democrats are not in support of it. Swalwell is probably the moderate of the group, Porter being the far-left progressive pick. Porter has documented anger issues and Swalwell slept with a Chinese spy, so they are flawed.
Wild card. Who will Trump endorse? Don’t get it twisted, even in a state like California, his endorsement will move the numbers; however, I would prefer that he stay out. Neither GOP candidate is great. Actually, both are seriously flawed. Neither have raised much money. Hilton is doing better in the polls as he likely has higher name identification due to his years hosting a show on Fox during the weekends. Bianco is an elected Sheriff from Riverside County (near LA) so he has name I.D. too.
Needless to say, it could be a fun couple of months out here in CA. One thing is for certain; the Democrats do not want 2 Republicans getting through, but if the top three Democrats take the gloves off, it could happen. If Trump doesn’t weigh in, again the top 2 Republicans could split 38% of the vote or so. The other thing that is for certain, if 2 Democrats make the top two, there is a solid chance the GOP could decide the outcome.
Get your popcorn ready!
The Chief