How Manchin Retiring affects Sleepy Joe

Note:  This blog is a direct reflection on William pointing out Senator Joe Manchin retired after I sent my blog to him yesterday.

Kind of a weird retirement announcement yesterday from Joe Manchin am I right?  Manchin who I best describe as a centrist, more of a watered-down Democrat announced he was retiring.  At age 76 he is pretty young in political years.  All in all, he likely would have lost re-election, current governor, former Democrat Jim Justice is running, and he likely beats Manchin by decent numbers.  However, Alex Mooney a congressman, hard right Trump supporter is also running.  I do not think Mooney a carpetbagger who moved from Maryland to win a congress seat beats Manchin.  Manchin despite being a democrat is very popular in dark red West Virginia. 

The weirdness about Manchin’s announcement?  He made a reference to traveling around the US and spreading his political message.

What I will be doing is traveling the country and speaking out to see whether there is an interest in creating a movement to mobilize the middle and bring Americans together

If you are wondering, there is a group called “No Labels” who for months has been laying the groundwork to try to field just that…. a bi-partisan ticket for the presidential race.  Manchin is the perfect person to top that ticket.  He is personable, likeable and spews common sense.  No one at this blog would vote for him, however. 

This creates another headache for Joseph Robinette Biden Jr.  Machin will be very popular in certain parts of the country (think Midwest and some parts of the southwest and south), running a centrist campaign with some decent sized donors behind them.  My understanding is “No Labels” has qualified to be on the ballot in several states already.

This is from an August 2023 press release but here are the states so far:  The ten states are: Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Oregon, South Dakota and Utah.

Spotlight Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina as 5 definite swing states based on recent elections.  I have a feeling far more states are to come. No Labels is not forthcoming about their progress on getting on the ballots of various states, but they maintain they are adequately funded to meet their goals.

Think about this, Manchin will need a running mate.  This brings another interesting couple of names up for speculation.

Mitt Romney, he also a soon to be former Senator.  His retirement is also due to kind of dubious reasons.  Romney hates Trump and is a “middle road” moderate type with no future in the GOP.

Kirstin Sinema, the current, no longer Democrat, Senator from Arizona is another option.  She also has no chance of being re-elected as an Independent.  Sinema, a former Democrat, could be a tough sell as a running mate with Manchin.  In a sense it will look like a spoiler ticket to hand the election to Trump.

Romney comes with the baggage that no Trump supporter will flip to this ticket. People in the Romney crowd are either solidly in the Biden camp or supporting RFK.

No one knows what will happen but let me lay out a nightmare scenario for Joe Robinette Biden and his crew.

Assume these following tickets nominate someone in all 50 states.

GOP:                                                     Trump
Democrat:                                           Biden
Independent:                                    Robert Kennedy jr.
Also Independent:                          Cornell West (He is the socialist type, weirdo black guy)
Green                                                   Jill Stein (2020 nominee)
Libertarian                                          There will be a nominee here
No Labels                                            Manchin/Romney/Sinema/Someone else?

The problem above is outside of the Libertarian and maybe RFK, no other party will draw votes from Trump.  The Green will suck maybe 1% from Joe in states that matter.  No Labels could very well take 2-4% pending the ticket and each state they run in.  RFK, as we detailed, will take roughly the same, again pending the states he is running in.  Cornell West is pulling the 1% insane folks vote nationwide. 

Therein lies the issue.  It gets more complex with No Labels likely fielding a ticket in quite a few states.  If Manchin is their guy, how many votes does he steal in Pennsylvania?  Virginia?  North Carolina?  If Sinema is on the ticket, how many from Arizona?  Colorado?  Romney is another wild card, as he will likely be stealing Biden votes in EVERY STATE.

Like I blogged yesterday, none of these third parties win, but how much does the race change?  Biden is looking at his “soft” support ceiling cracking little by little each passing day. I don’t expect significant Biden support to go to Trump, but I can see a number of people abandoning Biden for someone shiny and new. As a result, look for Dems to play hardball by deploying any gimmicks and dirty tricks at their disposal to try thwarting No Labels from fielding candidates.

The Chief

Last note:  Manchin may also be angling for an Exxon Mobil Board seat as he was the top beneficiary of their donations over the years, and he, via his family, owns a gas company. If he is genuinely finished with politics, this would be a logical move.