November 2016 – Page 2

Cubs Win So What Does That Mean to the Presidential Race?

First, congratulations to the Cubs. 108 years is a long time to wait. I told my wife this is probably the only time in eight years we’ve probably been on the same side of an issue as President Obama. She asked me “why” and I had to remind her that Obama claims to be from Chicago (before Hawaii, Kenya, and Indonesia).

The purpose of my column today is just to ask the question of what happened to the usual talk of the winner of the Super Bowl or World Series being a predictor of who would be the next President. If there was such talk during the battle between the Indians of Cleveland and the Cubs of Chicago then I totally missed it.

I did a search of the Internet and here is what I found.

Until 1976, it appeared that the World Series was an accurate predictor of the presidential race. From 1952 to 1976, if the American League won the World Series, then the President would be a Republican. If the National League won, then the election would go to the Democrat. However, it all changed after that.

Predicting the Presidential Election with Baseball: Can the Winner of the World Series Predict the Presidential Election?

Then forty years later, a couple of SABR member stats-nerds decided to expand the data set to cover the years 1908 to 2008 and asked, could the winners of the World Series really predict who won the Presidential election?

And of course the answer was no.

Of 27 elections held between 1908 and 2012, there has been a correlation between the World Series winner and the presidential winner 16 times (59%). Statistically speaking, that’s more of a coincidence.

The Best Predictor Of The Presidential Election: Is It The Winner Of The World Series?

Other examples of ‘predictors’ from past and present years include the following:

• If the Washington Redskins win the week of the election, this means a win for the incumbent party. This has held true since 1936.
• Whoever’s Halloween mask sells the most will be the next president.
• When companies produce ‘competing’ products, whichever sells the most is supposed to predict the winner. For example, if a company has cups with images of the Republican and Democratic candidates, the one which outsells the other would be a predictor.
• If the Dow Jones Average gains over the time from August to October, this predicts a win for the incumbent.
• If the Los Angeles Lakers win the championship, then the Republican candidate will win.

Predicting the Presidential Election with Baseball

I knew that the answer would be “no” because God is sovereign. Those that look for signs and wonders—or the “butterfly effect”—are sure to be disappointed. Yes there is “cause and effect” or “reaping and sewing” but that is not all. We live in an open system and not a closed one. God will bring His will to pass. Pray not that He is on your side but that you are on His.

I think Trump will win next week but I know that has always been a longshot in the eyes of most people. In my view, the World Series was just a distraction to get us closer to Election Day to end the drama, vote, and get on with the consequences.

Why Democrats Should Vote for Trump

I could go into a lot of reasons why Democrats should vote for Trump but Democrats are not motivated by logic, facts, or reason so I will give a short synopsis and then explain why.

I know that some games with economic statistics started under George W Bush but the fact is that the Obama Administration has been cooking the economic books for the full eight years of his term.

• Quantitative Easing has been artificially propping up the financial markets.
• The Federal Reserve has been propping up monetary policy but they have already said they will raise the Prime Rate after the election.
• Given that one in five American households have no one working and there are over 94 million adults that are no longer in the workforce out of a population of 308 million people (including children and senior citizens) do you really believe that unemployment is only five percent?
• Economic growth under Obama has never been above 3 percent Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in any fiscal quarter of his presidency—this is the first time in US history
• The auto loan market is in a financial bubble that is ready to burst (Americans owe over one trillion dollars in auto loans)
• The student loan debt is also over one trillion dollars
• Job creation under Obama is less than the number of college graduates entering the works force and has been for all eight years of his administration
• 36 percent of young people between 24 and 31 are still living at home
• Taxes, fees, and regulations have grown significantly under Obama
• Pension plans nationwide are trillions of dollars underfunded (one trillion just in California—State, County, and Local governments)
• Medicare and Social Security are facing insolvency in the next few years

This is only the tip of the statistical iceberg but you get the point, the house of cards will collapse sooner or later. You’ve had a good deal under Obama—or so you think—but the bills are about to come due.

We also learned from Democrats that capitalizing on disaster and tragedy is a cornerstone of how they operate. Spinning a crisis into political advantage is part of their playbook.

Here is your golden opportunity to do both. A vote for Trump is really a vote for future Democrat officeholders. Why? Because the economic system in the country needs a correction. Whichever party is in power when it happens will get the blame and you don’t want your guy (or in this case girl) in office when the stuff hits the fan. Trump can get the blame, fix it and then the next Democrat can ride the economic crisis all the way to the White House. If your Party spins it right then your guys could be in power for the next 16 years or better. Frankly, this might be a good reason to vote a strait Republican ticket. If Republicans own the Congress and Presidency then there is no way blame will go to your Party. In the long run you’ll be better for the experience.

Trust me, you want Trump when the economy takes a dump.

A Prayer for the Election

Last Sunday, I was tasked with doing the congregational prayer. Below is a prayer that I wrote and used concerning the upcoming election. I think that Dave Ramsey would approve this message.

Proverbs 21: 1
The king’s heart is in the hand of the LORD, as the rivers of water: he turns it wherever he will.

A Prayer for the Election

Oh Lord who has foreordained all according to your will, we ask that as our country prepares to cast ballots that the outcome would be to move our nation to repentance and restoration to fellowship with you. Help voters to see through myriad of disinformation and empty promises made to them and not choose to burden future generations with debt and slavery in exchange for our leisure today. Instead help us to choose the path of thrift and honest labor that we may have an inheritance to give to our children’s children. We ask this through Christ our Lord. Amen